%0 Research article
%T Influence of growth prediction errors on the expected losses from forest decisions
%A Pietilä, Ilona
%A Kangas, Annika
%A Mäkinen, Antti
%A Mehtätalo, Lauri
%D 2010
%J Silva Fennica
%V 44
%N 5
%R doi:10.14214/sf.111
%U https://silvafennica.fi/article/111
%X In forest planning, forest inventory information is used for predicting  future development of forests under different treatments. Model  predictions always include some errors, which can lead to sub-optimal  decisions and economic loss. The influence of growth prediction errors  on the reliability of projected forest variables and on the treatment  propositions have previously been examined in a few studies, but  economic losses due to growth prediction errors is an almost unexplored  subject. The aim of this study was to examine how the growth prediction  errors affected the expected losses caused by incorrect harvest  decisions, when the inventory interval increased. The growth models  applied in the analysis were stand-level growth models for basal area  and dominant height. The focus was entirely on the effects of growth  prediction errors, other sources of uncertainty being ignored. The  results show that inoptimality losses increased with the inventory  interval. Average relative inoptimality loss was 3.3% when the inventory  interval was 5 years and 11.6% when it was 60 years. Average absolute  inoptimality loss was 230 euro ha<sup>–1</sup> when the inventory interval was 5 years and 860 euro ha<sup>–1</sup> when it was 60 years. The average inoptimality losses varied between development classes, site classes and main tree species.