%0 Article
%T A dynamic forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price.
%A Toppinen, Anne
%A Hänninen, Riitta
%A Laaksonen, Susanna
%D 1996
%J Silva Fennica
%V 30
%N 4
%R doi:10.14214/sf.a8505
%U https://silvafennica.fi/article/5570
%X <p>This study investigates the relationship between Finnish sulphate pulp export prices and international pulp inventories using the Johansen cointegration method. Long-run equilibrium is found to exist between pulp price and NORSCAN inventory for the study period, 1980-94. Granger causality is found to exist from inventory to price but not vice versa. A simple short-run forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price is formed. In preliminary analysis, the explanatory power of model is found to be acceptable but only under stable market conditions.</p>