%0 Research article
%T Alternative projections of the impacts of private investment on southern forests: a comparison of two large-scale forest sector models of the United States
%A Alig, Ralph
%A Adams, Darius
%A Mills, John
%A Haynes, Richard
%A Ince, Peter
%A Moulton, Robert
%D 2001
%J Silva Fennica
%V 35
%N 3
%R doi:10.14214/sf.584
%U https://silvafennica.fi/article/584
%X The TAMM/NAPAP/ATLAS/AREACHANGE (TNAA) system and the Forest and  Agriculture Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) are two large-scale  forestry sector modeling systems that have been employed to analyze the  U.S. forest resource situation. The TNAA system of static, spatial  equilibrium models has been applied to make 50-year projections of the  U.S. forest sector for more than 20 years. Much of its input on forest  management behavior and decisions about use of forestland derives from  expert-based systems external to the TNAA system. FASOM, a spatial  intertemporal optimization model, directly incorporates decisions on  management investment and land use options relative to agricultural  alternatives as endogenous model elements. The paper contrasts  projections of private forest investment from the TNAA and FASOM models,  focusing on the southern United States. Comparison of the TNAA base  case and an investment-restricted scenario from FASOM, both of which  reflect a continuation of recent behavioral tendencies by nonindustrial  private owners, suggests that Southern private timberlands have  considerable biological and economic potential for intensified forest  management. Unrestricted FASOM projections confirm that added investment  could lead to substantially larger timber harvest volumes and lower  prices than those projected in the base/restricted cases. But even under  the more intensive investment scenarios, naturally regenerated forests  would cover three-quarters of the future private timberland base and  hardwoods would continue to dominate the inventory structure.