%0 Review article
%T Evaluating risk in forest planning models
%A Gadow, Klaus von
%D 2000
%J Silva Fennica
%V 34
%N 2
%R doi:10.14214/sf.639
%U https://silvafennica.fi/article/639
%X The purpose of forest scenario modelling is to evaluate multiple  management options and to answer what if questions relating to a  particular development path of a given forest. Forest scenario planning  can reduce uncertainty in management outcomes by anticipating the future  in a systematic way, thus reducing the likelihood of unexpected events.  It can also improve the chance that future developments will agree with  specified objectives. Numerous techniques have been proposed for  generating and evaluating scenarios of forest development. Some of the  techniques are limited to applications in simple forest production  systems while others are suitable for any type of forest management,  including individual tree selection systems. Risk is defined as the  expected loss due to a particular hazard for a given area and reference  period. An expected loss may be calculated as the product of the damage  and its probability. Risk analysis, risk evaluation and risk management  are formal procedures for quantifying, evaluating and managing risk  within a given hazard domain. Applications of risk analysis in forest  scenario planning are rare and greater emphasis needs to be placed on  hazard prediction. The aim of this contribution is to discuss some  aspects of risk analysis, including examples of specific modelling  tools. In a forest planning model risk can be considered in the form of  specific constraints limiting the total risk in a given time period.  Expected hazards can be used to exclude certain risky alternatives and  finally, risk can be calculated and used to reduce the value of an  objective function coefficient.