Current issue: 54(2)
Model-based information systems have proved valuable planning tools for analysing the production possibilities of forests as well as for understanding forest resources dynamics, stand management practices and forest economics. Computerized forest models implemented in the users’ information systems facilitate the transfer and application of research results in practical forestry.
Conclusions and visions concerning modelling are drawn from experiences in developing the MELA system and its application in solving timber production problems on both the national and forest holding level in Finland. The precondition for predicting forest resource dynamics and for planning the utilization of forests is to accept conditions, uncertainties and a restricted period of time.
The interactive process of forest resource, growth and drain monitoring, and forest management planning supported by forest research and modelling, are the means to enable an operational information base for a dynamic regulation and adaptation strategy for forest resource management under changing conditions and uncertainty.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
The paper discusses the evaluation of timber production policies with different income (timber drain) schedules. Special attention is given to the temporal smoothness of the income flow. A utility model is formulated in which the objective is to maximize a fixed consumption pattern, and money can be saved and borrowed at different interest rates. We thus have smoothness requirements only for consumption, the capital market then determines the smoothness of the optimal income flow. Present discounted value and maximization of even income flow criteria are special cases of the utility model. Consumption can be maximized by linear programming. A sample problem is presented.
The PDF includes a summary in Finnish.
The planning of timber production in a forestry unit is divisible into two phases. In the first phase, planning provides the decision-maker with a number of possible timber production policies; these policies define the production possibility boundary. After the decision-maker has chosen one of these policies, planning moves to the second phase, in which a detailed programme is prepared with a view to meeting the requirements of the timber production policy accepted. The paper indicates one possibility of solving these two tasks simultaneously. In the first phase, the solution of the primal linear programming problem is employed and in the second phase the respective dual or shadow price solution.
The PDF includes a summary in English.
The purpose of this study was that of providing a long-term timber production model (Kilkki and Pökkälä 1975) with growing stock models. The paper is divided into two parts; the first is concerned with generation of the stand data through Monte-Carlo simulation. The growing stock of each stand was described by a DBH-height distribution. The necessary information on the relationships between the stand characteristics was derived from sample plots measured in the national forest inventory of Finland. A total of 1,500 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst), and birch (Betula sp.) stands, each comprising 100 trees were provided by simulation.
In the second part, models predicting the form factor, timber assortment distribution, and value of the growing stock were derived through regression analysis for each species of tree. The predicting variables included the form factor of the basal area median tree, basal area median diameter, and height in the form factor models. In the timber assortment and value models, the only predicting variable was the volume of the basal area median tree. The Matchcurve-technique (Jensen 1973) was employed in derivation of the regression models.
The PDF includes a summary in English.