Current issue: 54(1)
Under compilation: 54(2)
The planning of timber production in a forestry unit is divisible into two phases. In the first phase, planning provides the decision-maker with a number of possible timber production policies; these policies define the production possibility boundary. After the decision-maker has chosen one of these policies, planning moves to the second phase, in which a detailed programme is prepared with a view to meeting the requirements of the timber production policy accepted. The paper indicates one possibility of solving these two tasks simultaneously. In the first phase, the solution of the primal linear programming problem is employed and in the second phase the respective dual or shadow price solution.
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A long-term timber production model was developed. The model is based upon numerical simulation and it is viewed only as a means of providing the decision-maker with values of the predicting variables in his utility function. Special attention was paid to the development of automatic cutting decision rules. The model was applied to the area of 2,752,000 hectares of forest land in Central Finland. The measurement data were extracted from the Sixth National Forest Inventory, which was made in 1973. Utilities from a hypothetical utility function were attained to a number of feasible timber production policies. The Bayes and maximin criteria were employed to evaluate these policies.
The PDF includes a summary in Finnish.