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Silva Fennica 1926-1997
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Acta Forestalia Fennica
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Articles containing the keyword 'forecasting'.

Category: Research article

article id 606, category Research article
Pekka Leskinen, Jyrki Kangas. (2001). Modelling future timber price development by using expert judgments and time series analysis. Silva Fennica vol. 35 no. 1 article id 606. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.606
Timber prices belong to the most important variables affecting the optimality of forest management. On the other hand, forecasting of timber prices is very uncertain. One difficulty when using past time series data in forecasting future timber price development is the possibility of changes in the markets and in the society at large. Expert knowledge can be applied in forecasting of timber prices as information additional to that provided by time series modelling. This paper presents an approach utilising both time series data and expert judgments in modelling future timber prices. A time series model is used as the basis for the approach. Parameters describing future timber price trends, variation in future timber prices, and the probabilities of price peaks taking place in the future are estimated with expert judgments as the basis. A case study involving 12 experts was carried out in Finland, and models were estimated for all the six major timber assortments in the country. The model produced can be utilised in the optimisation calculations of forest planning.
  • Leskinen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Kannus Research Station, P.O. Box 44, FIN-69101 Kannus, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail: pekka.leskinen@metla.fi (email)
  • Kangas, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Kannus Research Station, P.O. Box 44, FIN-69101 Kannus, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail:

Category: Research note

article id 631, category Research note
Pekka Ripatti. (2000). Use of log-linear models in forecasting structural changes in Finnish non-industrial private forest ownership. Silva Fennica vol. 34 no. 3 article id 631. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.631
This paper presents how log-linear models can be used for modelling and forecasting structural changes of Finnish non-industrial private forest ownership. Two cross-sectional sets of data, which were collected in conjunction with two separate surveys by means of mail questionnaires in 1975 and 1990, were employed. A total of six non-industrial private forest holding and ownership attributes are forecast focusing on the earlier pace of structural change. The results show that the pace of change in the forecast attributes appears to be less than it would be when derived from extrapolation of the earlier trends. The results of the study can be applied to forest policy and forestry extension planning, by providing a more realistic outlook of the future structure of non-industrial private forest ownership.
  • Ripatti, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Helsinki Research Centre, Unioninkatu 40 A, FIN-00170 Helsinki, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail: pekka.ripatti@metla.fi (email)

Category: Article

article id 7134, category Article
Päiviö Riihinen. (1962). Sales of newsprint in Finland, 1949-1959: models for short term forecasting. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 74 no. 7 article id 7134. https://doi.org/10.14214/aff.7134

Short run market forecasting is desirable both for adjusting production and for regulating the national employment policy. In this study a forecast is made for one product. The purpose of the study is to develop a short run model describing newsprint sales in Finland that will combine mathematical simplicity, accuracy of description and universality.

Two methods of selecting variables seemed to be available. According to the first, newsprint consumption is divided into components, each of which is considered separately. The second method, which proved more fruitful, starts out directly from factors influencing the publishers’ decisions in purchasing newsprint, eliminating the least significant intuitively and simultaneously determining the lags.

The models developed in this study are capable of forecasting potential consumption. Even the best models in this study are multicollinear. The further into the future a forecast is extended, the greater is the possibility that relationships between the explanatory variables will change. It is intended that the newsprint seller will profit from the models achieved by using them to forecast sales in a future period, so that he can avoid both loss of interest due to acquiring a surplus of raw material or acute shortages of raw material.

The PDF includes a summary in Finnish.

  • Riihinen, ORCID ID:E-mail:
article id 5620, category Article
Anne Toppinen. (1997). Testing for Granger-causality in the Finnish roundwood market. Silva Fennica vol. 31 no. 2 article id 5620. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.a8521

The existence and direction of causal relationships between the time series for the Finnish roundwood market for the period 1960–1994 is tested. Using simple bivariate analysis, we found evidence that for both logs and pulpwood, the lagged prices are helpful in forecasting quantity for the next year, but not vice versa. Saw log stumpage prices have significantly Granger-caused pulpwood prices over the business cycles, but the effect has diminished towards the present time. For quantities traded, the direction of causality was rather from pulpwood to saw logs. The consistency of bivariate test results was checked by the Granger-causality tests within trivariate VAR-models for both markets, and the results were found to be fairly similar to bivariate tests. The price fluctuations in the international markets for forest products have been found to be carried to domestic wood markets dominantly via the pulpwood part of the market.

  • Toppinen, ORCID ID:E-mail:

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