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Articles containing the keyword 'scenario modelling'.

Category: Research article

article id 586, category Research article
Tuula Nuutinen, Seppo Kellomäki. (2001). A comparison of three modelling approaches for large-scale forest scenario analysis in Finland. Silva Fennica vol. 35 no. 3 article id 586. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.586
Forests play an important role in the sequestration of carbon dioxide and the storage of carbon. The potential and efficiency of mitigation options in forestry have been studied using large-scale forestry scenario models. In Finland, three models have been applied in attempts to estimate timber production and related carbon budgets. In this study, these models are compared. The oldest, MELA, was designed in the 1970s for the regional and national analysis of timber production. The European Forest Information Scenario Model, EFISCEN, originally a Swedish area matrix model, was developed in the early 1980s. SIMA, a gap-type ecosystem model, was utilised in the 1990s for regional predictions on how the changing climate may affect forest growth and timber yield in Finland. In EFISCEN, only the development of growing stock is endogeneous because the assumptions on growth, and the removal and rules for felling are given exogeneously. In the SIMA model, the rules for felling are exogeneous but the growth is modelled based on individual trees reacting to their environment. In the MELA model, the management of forests is endogeneous, i.e. the growth, felling regimes and the development of growing stock are the results of the analysis. The MELA approach integrated with a process-based ecosystem model seems most applicable in the analyses of effective mitigation measures compatible with sustainable forestry under a changing climate. When using the scenarios for the estimation of carbon budget, the policy makers should check that the analyses cover the whole area of interest, and that the assumptions on growth and management together with the definitions applied correspond with the forestry conditions in question.
  • Nuutinen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Centre, Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail: tuula.nuutinen@metla.fi (email)
  • Kellomäki, University of Joensuu, Box 111, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail:
article id 636, category Research article
Tuula Nuutinen, Hannu Hirvelä, Jari Hynynen, Kari Härkönen, Hannu Hökkä, Kari T. Korhonen, Olli Salminen. (2000). The role of peatlands in Finnish wood production – an analysis based on large-scale forest scenario modelling. Silva Fennica vol. 34 no. 2 article id 636. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.636
Using the Finnish MELA model, a set of scenarios were produced and used to map the possibilities and risks surrounding the utilisation of peatlands in wood production in Finland. One of the scenarios was an estimate of allowable-cut calculated by maximising the net present value of the future revenues using a four per cent interest rate subject to non-decreasing flow of wood, saw logs and net income over a 50-year period, and net present value after the 50 year period greater or equal than in the beginning. The estimate for maximum regionally sustained removal in 1996–2005 was 68 million m3 per year – approaching 74 million m3 during the next decades. In this scenario, 14 per cent of all cuttings during the period 1996–2005 would be made on peatlands, which comprise ca. 31 per cent of the total area of forestry land. By the year 2025, the proportion of peatland cuttings would increase to over 20 per cent. The increase in future cutting possibilities on peatlands compensated for a temporary decrease in cuttings and growing stock on mineral soils. The allowable-cut effect was especially pronounced in northern Finland, where peatlands play an important role in wood production. In addition, the sensitivity of cutting possibilities for assumptions related to growth and price were analysed. The estimate of maximum sustainable yield as defined here seems to be fairly robust on the whole, except in northern Finland where the cutting scenarios were sensitive to the changes in the price of birch pulpwood. The proportion of peatland stands that are profitable for timber production depends on the interest rate: the higher the rate of interest the less peatland stands are thinned. The effect of cutting profile on future logging conditions and resulting costs were analysed in two forestry centres. If clear cuttings on mineral soils are to be cut first, an increase in future logging costs is inevitable.
  • Nuutinen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail: tuula.nuutinen@metla.fi (email)
  • Hirvelä, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail:
  • Hynynen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail:
  • Härkönen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail:
  • Hökkä, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail:
  • Korhonen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail:
  • Salminen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland ORCID ID:E-mail:

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