Current issue: 53(3)
Under compilation: 53(4)
The existence and direction of causal relationships between the time series for the Finnish roundwood market for the period 1960–1994 is tested. Using simple bivariate analysis, we found evidence that for both logs and pulpwood, the lagged prices are helpful in forecasting quantity for the next year, but not vice versa. Saw log stumpage prices have significantly Granger-caused pulpwood prices over the business cycles, but the effect has diminished towards the present time. For quantities traded, the direction of causality was rather from pulpwood to saw logs. The consistency of bivariate test results was checked by the Granger-causality tests within trivariate VAR-models for both markets, and the results were found to be fairly similar to bivariate tests. The price fluctuations in the international markets for forest products have been found to be carried to domestic wood markets dominantly via the pulpwood part of the market.
This paper is a theoretical study of what is considered to constitute the proper perception of time in forest economics and management. A stumpage appraisal model that recognizes the influence of time is developed within the framework of a national aggregate economy. To demonstrate how a socially optimal land for timber production may be determined in a given nation, a stock-supply model is derived. The stumpage appraisal rule of development determines the market stumpage price that maintains a state of balance between timber production and other land use activities.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
The aim of this paper was to study the nature of the relative areal differences in the Finnish forests in respect of timber yield, intensity of exploitation and stumpage prices. The yield index is the most inconsistent and the source of the greatest regional differences. The differences arise even in Southern Finland, as the yield in the South-West is only 80 % of that obtained in Eastern Häme. The areal variations in the wastage index are of the order of only 10 % at most, and the stumpage price index is relatively constant, remaining within the 10 % limit, as far north as the southern boundary of the province of Oulu.
Indices for the forest yield and final forest returns suggest that the further one goes in Finland the greater the discrepancy between the two, as a consequence of the increase in stumpage price differences. Thus, whereas the yield per hectare in North-Eastern Finland is about 20 % of that in Eastern Häme, the stumpage price is similarly only just over 50 % of that prevailing in the latter area. This, the resulting returns per hectare are only 10 % of those obtainable in the more southerly area. When the return per hectare for the Forestry Board District of Eastern Häme is represented by the index 100, one then obtains corresponding return indices of 21.0 for the Northern Ostrobothnia and Kainuu area, 13.0 for Lapland and 10.0 for North-Eastern Finland. Thus, it may be said that roughly 10 hectares of forest land in Lapland, 5 in Northern Ostrobothnia or Kainuu, or 2 in Northern Karelia or the coastal area of southern and central Ostrobothnia would be required to produce the same returns as 1 hectare in Eastern Häme. This represents an extremely wide range of variation within the borders of one country.
This work provides a clear and sufficiently accurate impression of the order of magnitude of the areal differences in returns from the Finnish forests, and may thus serve as an adequate basis for the taking of decisions in this field.
The PDF includes a summary in English.