1

Fig. 1. Norwegian forest inventory (NFI) regions. The analyses cover region 1 through 6. Region 7 is excluded from the analyses due to lack of data. The names of the counties comprising each region in the study period are shown to the right.

Table 1. Descriptive statistics of forest and forestry conditions in the six regions covered by the analyses. Data is from the middle of the study period (1996–2016). Source: Statistics Norway (2018b); Statistics Norway (2018d); Statistics Norway (2018e); Statistics Norway (2018f); Statistics Norway (2018g).
Region/Counties1 Forest area,
km2
Growing stock,
Mm3
Share mature
forest
Annual harvest,
1000 m3
Average property size,
ha
Harvest intensity,
m3 ha–1
All 79 955 746 38% 7801 68 1.0
1 Østfold, Akershus, Oslo, Hedmark 19 718 211 30% 3384 93 1.7
2 Oppland, Buskerud, Vestfold 15 430 158 36% 2280 72 1.5
3 Telemark, Aust-Agder, Vest-Agder 11 923 131 43% 1024 74 0.9
4 Rogaland, Hordaland, Sogn og Fjordane, Møre og Romsdal 10 552 106 40% 268 39 0.3
5 Sør-Trøndelag, Nord-Trøndelag 10 901 86 40% 717 81 0.7
6 Nordland, Troms 11 432 54 47% 128 63 0.1
1 As of January 1, 2020 some of the counties were merged in a regional reform. Some of the counties in regions 1–3 were merged across regions. The regions are so far not adjusted in the NFI data as reported by Statistics Norway.
2

Fig. 2. Total industrial harvest in the six regions for which the analyses cover, 1000 m3 year–1. Source: Statistics Norway (2018b).

Table 2. Correlation (Pearson correlation coefficient) between variables used in the timber supply analyses. Variables are not transformed (i.e. not in log-form).
Sawlog harvest Pulpwood harvest Sawlog price Pulpwood price Standing stock Interest rate
Sawlog harvest 1.00 0.97 0.36 –0.07 0.93 –0.08
Pulpwood harvest 0.97 1.00 0.36 –0.03 0.92 –0.08
Sawlog price 0.36 0.36 1.00 0.73 0.16 0.50
Pulpwood price –0.07 –0.03 0.73 1.00 –0.25 0.72
Standing stock 0.93 0.92 0.16 –0.25 1.00 –0.20
Interest rate –0.08 –0.08 0.50 0.72 –0.20 1.00
Table 3. Poolability F-tests (F-value and significance level) of timber supply models with regional own price elasticities. The null hypothesis is that all regional price elasticities are equal within each model.
Fixed effect Random effect First difference
Pulpwood
  Static 7.2*** 7.4*** 0.9
  Dynamic 2.9** 4.7*** 1.3
Sawlogs
  Static 21.8*** 21.9*** 0.6
  Dynamic 5.3*** 4.9*** 0.8
Significance levels: *** = 1%, ** = 5%, * = 10%
Table 4. Parameter estimates, standard errors (in parenthesis), and significance level indicators for pulpwood supply models.
Model Fixed effect Random effect First difference
Static, common slope
  Intercept –6.20 (5.11)
  Pulpwood price 0.53 (0.37) 0.58 (0.34)* 0.50 (0.19)***
  Sawlog price 0.04 (0.23) 0.15 (0.25) 0.04 (0.13)
  Standing stock 1.05 (0.53)** 1.28 (0.38)*** 0.85 (0.27)***
  Rate of return –2.05 (1.07)* –1.71 (1.36) –0.39 (0.94)
Dynamic, common slope
  Intercept –4.38 (1.10)***
  Pulpwood price 0.24 (0.14) 0.15 (0.15) 0.53(0.21)**
  Sawlog price 0.27 (0.10)*** 0.11 (0.08) 0.17(0.16)
  Standing stock 0.86 (0.20)*** 0.45 (0.04)*** –0.03(0.72)
  Rate of return –0.53 (0.79) –1.28 (0.85) –0.88(1.32)
  Pulpwood harvest, t–1 0.81 (0.04)*** 0.82 (0.03)*** –0.08(0.07)
Static, regional slopes
  Intercept 1.57 (6.28)
  Pulpwood price, region 1 0.04 (0.38) 0.14 (0.36) 0.30 (0.07)***
  Pulpwood price, region 2 0.53 (0.35) 0.53 (0.34) 0.57 (0.07)***
  Pulpwood price, region 3 1.59 (0.44)*** 1.45 (0.42)*** 1.00 (0.06)***
  Pulpwood price, region 4 –0.35 (0.57) –0.26 (0.54) 0.52 (0.12)***
  Pulpwood price, region 5 0.35 (0.39) 0.37 (0.38) 0.23 (0.10)**
  Pulpwood price, region 6 0.96 (0.56)* 0.85 (0.53) 0.13 (0.12)
  Sawlog price –0.22 (0.33) –0.18 (0.31) 0.02 (0.13)
  Standing stock 0.79 (0.46)* 0.83 (0.46)* 0.82 (0.31)***
  Rate of return –2.34 (1.13)** –2.27 (1.14)** –0.19 (0.99)
Dynamic, regional slopes
  Intercept –8.45 (3.41)**
  Pulpwood price, region 1 0.20 (0.12) 0.21 (0.11)* 0.44(0.13)***
  Pulpwood price, region 2 0.26 (0.08)*** 0.26 (0.08)*** 0.59(0.1)***
  Pulpwood price, region 3 0.77 (0.09)*** 0.67 (0.09)*** 1.05(0.15)***
  Pulpwood price, region 4 –0.16 (0.23) –0.08 (0.20) 0.52(0.14)***
  Pulpwood price, region 5 0.04 (0.11) 0.08 (0.11) 0.24(0.26)
  Pulpwood price, region 6 0.39 (0.13)*** 0.36 (0.13)*** 0.11(0.31)
  Sawlog price 0.17 (0.10)* 0.19 (0.09)** 0.13(0.17)
  Standing stock 0.81 (0.19)*** 0.82 (0.20)*** –0.53(0.83)
  Rate of return –0.74 (0.70) –0.71 (0.71) –0.65(1.38)
  Pulpwood harvest, t–1 0.70 (0.07)*** 0.72 (0.06)*** –0.08(0.1)
Significance levels: *** = 1%, ** = 5%, * = 10%
Table 5. Parameter estimates, standard errors (in parenthesis), and significance level indicators for sawlog supply models.
Model Fixed effect Random effect First difference
Static, common slope
  Intercept –11.14 (4.20)***
  Pulpwood price –0.32 (0.27) –0.27 (0.23) 0.02 (0.14)
  Sawlog price 0.76 (0.23)*** 0.88 (0.30)*** 1.24 (0.13)***
  Standing stock 1.50 (0.58)** 1.73 (0.41)*** 2.09 (0.32)***
  Rate of return 1.60 (0.77)** 1.95 (0.99)* –1.44 (0.78)*
Dynamic, common slope
  Intercept –4.22 (2.03)**
  Pulpwood price –0.30 (0.15)* –0.36 (0.09)*** 0.23(0.15)
  Sawlog price 0.76 (0.13)*** 0.64 (0.26)** 1.01(0.08)***
  Standing stock 0.75 (0.12)*** 0.41 (0.17)** 2.22(0.65)***
  Rate of return 0.47 (0.63) –0.17 (0.68) –0.58(0.81)
  Sawlog harvest, t–1 0.78 (0.16)*** 0.82 (0.08)*** –0.31(0.09)***
Static, regional slopes
  Intercept 5.83 (1.65)***
  Pulpwood price –0.57 (0.17)*** –0.56 (0.18)*** 0.04 (0.13)
  Sawlog price, region 1 0.79 (0.09)*** 0.79 (0.09)*** 1.04 (0.03)***
  Sawlog price, region 2 0.72 (0.10)*** 0.72 (0.11)*** 1.30 (0.05)***
  Sawlog price, region 3 0.98 (0.12)*** 0.97 (0.11)*** 1.21 (0.04)***
  Sawlog price, region 4 –2.67 (0.21)*** –2.49 (0.19)*** 0.74 (0.08)***
  Sawlog price, region 5 1.62 (0.12)*** 1.57 (0.12)*** 1.20 (0.04)***
  Sawlog price, region 6 0.53 (0.12)*** 0.54 (0.12)*** 1.77 (0.04)***
  Standing stock 0.64 (0.24)*** 0.69 (0.26)*** 2.09 (0.31)***
  Rate of return 1.03 (0.81) 1.06 (0.81) –1.45 (0.79)*
Dynamic, regional slopes
  Intercept –3.02 (3.67)
  Pulpwood price –0.47 (0.18)*** –0.42 (0.18)** 0.19(0.16)
  Sawlog price, region 1 0.78 (0.07)*** 0.76 (0.08)*** 0.88(0.09)***
  Sawlog price, region 2 0.80 (0.07)*** 0.78 (0.08)*** 1.07(0.12)***
  Sawlog price, region 3 0.95 (0.09)*** 0.91 (0.10)*** 0.76(0.25)***
  Sawlog price, region 4 –1.26 (0.68)* –0.75 (0.56) 0.81(0.14)***
  Sawlog price, region 5 1.19 (0.20)*** 1.06 (0.20)*** 0.94(0.21)***
  Sawlog price, region 6 0.76 (0.10)*** 0.77 (0.08)*** 1.72(0.15)***
  Standing stock 0.59 (0.16)*** 0.63 (0.15)*** 2.11(0.63)***
  Rate of return 0.73 (0.64) 0.66 (0.63) –0.85(0.77)
  Sawlog harvest, t–1 0.50 (0.18)*** 0.57 (0.19)*** –0.30(0.1)***
Significance levels: *** = 1%, ** = 5%, * = 10%
Table 6. Unconstrained OLS and seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) pulpwood and sawlog supply models. Parameter estimates, standard errors (in parenthesis), and significance level indicators for first difference models.
Elasticity Pulpwood  Sawlog 
Unconstrained OLS Constrained SUR Unconstrained OLS Constrained SUR
Own price, region 1 0.35 (0.34) 0.30 (0.30) 1.02 (0.36)*** 0.90 (0.33)***
Own price, region 2 0.61 (0.35)* 0.50 (0.31) 1.32 (0.38)*** 1.21 (0.35)***
Own price, region 3 1.00 (0.33)*** 0.96 (0.30)*** 1.21 (0.38)*** 1.30 (0.34)***
Own price, region 4 0.58 (0.37) 0.79 (0.33)** 0.80 (0.55) 0.88 (0.50)*
Own price, region 5 0.16 (0.38) 0.34 (0.33) 1.12 (0.42)** 0.97 (0.39)**
Own price, region 6 0.02 (0.40) 0.46 (0.37) 1.83 (0.42)*** 1.85 (0.38)***
Cross price 0.01 (0.17) 0.05 (0.17) 0.03 (0.18) –0.06 (0.17)
Standing stock, region 1 1.77 (1.90) 1.39 (1.65) 1.25 (1.97) 1.39 (1.65)
Standing stock, region 2 1.73 (2.37) 1.84 (2.05) 2.66 (2.40) 1.84 (2.05)
Standing stock, region 3 0.83 (1.52) 1.29 (1.32) 1.98 (0.59) 1.29 (1.32)
Standing stock, region 4 1.24 (1.05) 1.86 (0.91)** 2.40 (1.09)** 1.86 (0.91)**
Standing stock, region 5 0.02 (1.19) 0.36 (1.44) 0.66 (1.71) 0.36 (1.44)
Standing stock, region 6 –0.19 (0.95) 1.42 (1.19) 2.86 (1.43)** 1.42 (1.19)
Rate of return –0.16 (1.01) –0.83 (0.84) –1.46 (1.04) –0.83 (0.84)
Significance levels: *** = 1%, ** = 5%, * = 10%