Fig. 1. The frequencies of the Pinus sylvestris seedlots by latitudinal origin and genetic group.
Fig. 2. The logistic growth curve fitted to the measurements (dots) of the terminal shoot elongation and the main phenological events in a Pinus sylvestris seedling.
| Table 1. Results from the mixed model analyses (the final models). The factors labelled as “Group”, “Origin” and “G × O” refer to the factors G, β1, β2i in Eq. 2. The factors denoted as “N/A” were not included in the final model. Significant differences (p < 0.05) are denoted in bold. The trait abbreviations are: GRCESS: Growth cessation; BUDSETDATE: Time from germination to the date when bud set was observed; FRINJURY: Freezing injury, the damaged needle area as percentage of the total needle area; BUDFLUSH: The percentage of freezing-tested seedlings with a recorded bud flush in June following the freezing. The predictions are for seedlings with 100% (EXP1) and 10% rates of needle injury (EXP2). | |||||||||
| Trait | Experiment | Fixed factors | Random factors | ||||||
| F-test (type 3) significance | Variance components | ||||||||
| Group | Origin | G × O | σ2f | σ2s | σ2b | σ2e | N | ||
| GRCESS | EXP1 | 0.057 | <0.000 | 0.044 | N/A | 0.1 | 1.1 | 25.8 | 594 |
| EXP2 | 0.178 | 0.133 | 0.150 | N/A | 4.8 | 19.5 | 80.3 | 445 | |
| BUDSETDATE | EXP1 | 0.070 | <0.000 | 0.057 | N/A | 0.0 | 10.6 | 91.7 | 524 |
| EXP2 | 0.089 | <0.000 | 0.069 | N/A | 2.3 | 8.9 | 58.3 | 444 | |
| FRINJURY | EXP1 | 0.317 | <0.001 | 0.315 | 468.5 | 8.5 | 154.2 | 650.4 | 3017 |
| EXP2 | 0.143 | <0.001 | 0.108 | 366.9 | 3.3 | 93.6 | 871.3 | 1290 | |
| FLUSHING | EXP1 | 0.738 | 0.085 | 0.731 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 3013 | |
| EXP2 | 0.272 | 0.099 | N/A | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 1290 | ||
| Table 2. Estimated least-square means and their 5% and 95% confidence limits (CLMlo and CLMhi) for the genetic groups in the two experiments and on the two latitudes representing southern (62°N) and northern (66°N) Finland. “Prob.” is the observed significance of Dunnett’s test for the difference between a seed orchard group vs. an unimproved control of the same origin. The pairwise differences found significant at the 5% alpha level are denoted in bold. SO1.0 seedlots of northern origin were not included in EXP1. Similarly, the SO1.5FT group represents exclusively northern origins and the results are shown only for the 66th latitude. The trait acronyms are given in Table 1. | ||||||||||
| Trait | Genetic group | Latitude | Experiment 1 | Experiment 2 | ||||||
| Mean | CLMlo | CLMhi | Prob. | Mean | CLMlo | CLMhi | Prob. | |||
| GRCESS (days) | Unimproved | 62 | 89.6 | 88.2 | 90.9 | 91.5 | 85.8 | 97.2 | ||
| SO1.0 | 62 | 89.5 | 88.2 | 90.7 | 0.991 | 87.4 | 82.8 | 91.0 | 0.249 | |
| SO1.5 | 62 | 89.9 | 89.0 | 90.8 | 0.857 | 86.9 | 82.8 | 91.0 | 0.165 | |
| Unimproved | 66 | 87.6 | 86.1 | 89.2 | 83.1 | 79.0 | 87.2 | |||
| SO1.0 | 66 | - | - | - | 77.4 | 72.7 | 82.2 | 0.063 | ||
| SO1.5 | 66 | 89.9 | 89.0 | 90.8 | 0.175 | 82.4 | 75.8 | 88.9 | 0.993 | |
| SO1.5FT | 66 | 89.6 | 88.5 | 90.7 | 0.183 | 81.5 | 77.5 | 85.4 | 0.779 | |
| BUDSETDATE (days) | Unimproved | 62 | 105.1 | 102.2 | 108.0 | 100.2 | 95.9 | 104.5 | ||
| SO1.0 | 62 | 106.6 | 103.9 | 109.3 | 0.414 | 97.5 | 94.3 | 100.7 | 0.527 | |
| SO1.5 | 62 | 105.4 | 103.5 | 107.4 | 0.859 | 95.6 | 92.7 | 98.4 | 0.104 | |
| Unimproved | 66 | 100.7 | 97.5 | 103.6 | 81.3 | 78.4 | 84.3 | |||
| SO1.0 | 66 | - | - | - | 84.9 | 81.3 | 88.4 | 0.175 | ||
| SO1.5 | 66 | 104.3 | 100.2 | 108.5 | 0.330 | 83.5 | 78.5 | 88.4 | 0.750 | |
| SO1.5FT | 66 | 102.7 | 100.3 | 105.1 | 0.537 | 81.7 | 78.8 | 84.5 | 0.994 | |
| FRINJURY (%) | Unimproved | 62 | 57.3 | 38.9 | 75.7 | 83.3 | 63.8 | 102.7 | ||
| SO1.0 | 62 | 64.2 | 45.8 | 85.5 | 0.016 | 84.0 | 65.1 | 103.0 | 0.995 | |
| SO1.5 | 62 | 61.7 | 43.6 | 79.9 | 0.082 | 83.1 | 64.4 | 101.8 | 0.999 | |
| Unimproved | 66 | 27.0 | 8.3 | 45.7 | 31.1 | 12.2 | 49.8 | |||
| SO1.0 | 66 | - | - | - | 43.3 | 24.2 | 62.5 | 0.071 | ||
| SO1.5 | 66 | 27.3 | 43.6 | 79.9 | 0.999 | 36.2 | 16.0 | 56.2 | 0.613 | |
| SO1.5FT | 66 | 23.8 | 8.3 | 45.7 | 0.578 | 28.1 | 9.4 | 46.8 | 0.688 | |
| BUDFLUSH (%) | Unimproved | 62 | 70.4 | 45.6 | 87.1 | 36.2 | 14.9 | 64.5 | ||
| SO1.0 | 62 | 71.4 | 47.0 | 87.5 | 0.991 | 35.0 | 12.0 | 68.1 | 0.999 | |
| SO1.5 | 62 | 66.7 | 42.3 | 84.6 | 0.676 | 33.6 | 14.4 | 60.4 | 0.986 | |
| Unimproved | 66 | 89.4 | 70.7 | 96.7 | 53.3 | 31.4 | 74.2 | |||
| SO1.0 | 66 | - | - | - | 52.2 | 27.6 | 75.8 | 0.999 | ||
| SO1.5 | 66 | 84.6 | 62.6 | 94.7 | 0.678 | 50.7 | 26.9 | 74.2 | 0.986 | |
| SO1.5FT | 66 | 91.5 | 77.6 | 97.1 | 0.891 | 58.0 | 36.2 | 77.0 | 0.903 | |
Fig. 3. Growth cessation (GRCESS) of the seedlots in the two experiments.
Fig. 4. Bud set (BUDSETDATE) of the seedlots in the two experiments.
Fig. 5. Freezing injuries (FRINJURY) of the seedlots in the two experiments.
Fig. 6. Bud flushing rate (BUDFLUSH) of the seedlots in the two experiments. The flushing rates were estimated for 100% and 10% injured seedlings in EXP1 and EXP2, respectively.