Silva Fennica

Table 1. Harvests and net exports of wood in seven production alternatives considered for Norway. iH2021: harvest and forest industry production as in 2021. iH2021Fibr: as iH2021 but with pulpwood exports used for textile fibre and insulation materials production instead of paper pulp. iH2021Fuel: as iH2021 but with pulpwood exports used for transportation biofuels. iH2021-20%: industrial roundwood harvests are 20% lower than in 2021. Forest industry production based on exported wood is cut down. iH2021+20%: industrial roundwood harvests are 20% higher than in 2021. Production increases in existing product categories. iH2021+20%Fibr: as iH2021+20% but production of textile and insulation materials increase. iH2021+20%Fuel: else as iH2021+20% but production of transportation biofuels increases.
	Harvest, Mm³				Net exports, Mm³			Side product from sawlog net exports and changes in domestic sawnwood production, Mm³
	Fuelwood	Sawlogs	Pulpwood	Total	Sawlogs	Pulpwood	Wood chips and particles	Wood chips and particles
iH2021	2.1	6.9	4.6	13.6	1.7	1.9	0.2	0.6
iH2021Fibr	2.1	6.9	4.6	13.6	1.7	-	-	0.6
iH2021Fuel	2.1	6.9	4.6	13.6	1.7	-	-	0.6
iH2021-20%	2.1	5.5	3.7	11.3	0.3	0.9	0.2	0.1
iH2021+20%	2.1	8.2	5.6	15.9	3.0	2.8	0.6	1.1
iH2021+20%Fibr	2.1	8.2	5.6	15.9	1.7	-	-	1.1
iH2021+20%Fuel	2.1	8.2	5.6	15.9	1.7	-	-	1.1

Table 2. Production of forest industry products in the seven cases considered for Norway. Abbreviations: SaW = sawnwood, MeP = mechanical pulp, ChP = chemical pulp, DiP = Dissolving pulp, ParB = particleboard, FiB = fibreboard, WhP = white pellets, BlP = black pellets, TeF = textile fibre, InsM = insulation materials, BE = bioethanol. Wood inputs for textile fibre and ethanol were randomized between 4.9–5.3 m³ Mg^–1and 6.0–7.3 m³ m^–3, respectively. Notation [min, max] gives the resulting minimum and maximum production levels that appeared in the 15 000 states of nature. Mg refers to tonne, and Tg to millions of tonnes. For short description of the cases, see Table 1.
	SaW	MeP	ChP	DiP	ParB	FiB	WhP	BlP	TeF	InsM	BE
	Mm³	Tg	Tg	Tg	Mm³	Mm³	Tg	Tg	Tg	Tg	Mm³
iH2021	3.73	0.90	0.53	0.15	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.07	0.00	0.04	0.02
iH2021Fibr	3.73	0.90	0.12	0.15	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.07	[0.29, 0.35]	0.20	0.02
iH2021Fuel	3.73	0.90	0.12	0.15	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.07	0.00	0.04	[0.28, 0.38]
iH2021-20%	2.97	0.90	0.24	0.15	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.07	0.00	0.04	0.02
iH2021+20%	4.49	0.90	0.82	0.15	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.07	0.00	0.04	0.02
iH2021+20%Fibr	4.49	0.90	0.12	0.15	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.07	[0.48, 0.59]	0.31	0.02
iH2021+20%Fuel	4.49	0.90	0.12	0.15	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.07	0.00	0.04	[0.47, 0.65]

Table 3. Carbon displacement factors (DFs) for 2030, end uses, and other assumptions made on harvested wood products (HWPs) originating from Norwegian wood. Unless otherwise mentioned, unit for DF is MgC per unit of finished product expressed in MgCstored in it. For the parameters varying across the 15 000 states of nature, the ranges used in defining these states by random draw are indicated either by [lowest value, highest value] or by a default value with a 30% percentage variation around it. Thus e.g., 0.9 + 30% could also be written [0.63, 1.17].
HWP	Variation in end-use share or wood input & other assumptions	DF, Production	DF, End-of-Life
Sawnwood for
Construction:	[70%, 80%] of sawnwood ⁽¹⁾
-Structural	[60%, 73%] of construction ^{(2), (3)}	0.9 + 30% ⁽²⁾	0.55 + 30%
-Non-structural	Rest of construction	1.2 + 30% ⁽²⁾	0.55 + 30%
Furniture	[2%, 4%] of sawnwood ^{(4), (5)}	0.9 + 30% ⁽⁴⁾	0.55 + 30%
Packaging	[81%, 91%] of what is left after construction and furniture. Mean 19%. ^{(4), (5)}	1.1 + 30% ⁽⁴⁾	0.55 + 30%
Other uses	What is left from all other uses. Mean 3%. ^{(4), (5)}	0 ⁽⁴⁾	0.55 + 30%
Fibreboard	Various end-uses	[–0.16, 0.33] ^{(6), (7)}	0.55 + 30%
Particleboard	Various end-uses	[0.26–1.60] ^{(2), (6), (7), (8), (15)}	0.55 + 30%
Insulation materials
Blow in	[40%, 60%] ⁽³⁾	[2.9, 3.8] ^{(9), (10), (11)}	0.55 + 30%
Board form	Rest of insulation materials	[1.5, 3.8] ^{(9), (10), (11)}	0.55 + 30%
Mechanical pulp	Used for newsprint and magazine papers	0	0.55 + 30%
Wood-based textile fibres	Substituting oil-based fibre. Wood input [4.9, 5.3] m³per Mgof pulp⁽³⁾	[2.5, 3.7]^{(12), (13), (14)}	0.55 + 30%
Chemical pulp made from exported wood
Printing and writing papers	50% end-use share ⁽³⁾	0 ⁽⁴⁾	0.55 + 30%
Paperboard replacing plastics	50% end-use share⁽³⁾	1.3 + 30% ⁽⁸⁾	0.55 + 30%
Pellets (white)	Substituting [heating oil, coal]	-	[0.35, 0.43] MgC per Mg of pellets⁽³⁾
Pellets (black)	Substituting coal	-	[0.45, 0.49] MgC per Mg of pellets⁽³⁾
Bioethanol	Substituting gasoline. Wood input [6, 7.3] m³ per m³of fuel ⁽³⁾	-	[0.35, 0.44] MgC per m³of fuel⁽³⁾
Fuelwood	Household fuelwood	-	[0.10, 0.60] ⁽³⁾
Sources: 1) Treindustrien 2021. 2) Leskinen et al. 2018. 3) Calculated or assumed by authors, 4) Hurmekoski et al. 2020. 5) Sandberg et al. 2014. 6) Suter et al. 2017. 7) Trømborg and Sjølie 2011, 8) Knauf et al. 2015. 9) Kallio et al. 2023, 10) Hunton 2017, 2020a, 2020b, 11) Schulte et al. 2021, 12) Shen et al. 2010, 13) Rüter et al. 2016, 14) Spinnova 2022. 15) Brunet-Navarro et al. 2021.

Table 4. Assumptions used for calculating the carbon sinks in Norway for harvested wood products (HWP) with half-life of 2 years or more. The half-life values vary across the 15 000 states of nature, and ranges used in defining these states by random draw are indicated by [lowest value, highest value]. Lifetime data are based on various sources reviewed and indicated in Kallio et al. (2023, p. 260).
HWP	Mean lifetime (ML). Years.	Half-life range used in sampling. HL = ln(2) × ML. [Min, Max] years.
Sawnwood	Weighted average over the uses in Table 3	[20, 50]
-Structural construction	52–100	[36, 69]
-Non-structural construction	10–60	[7, 42]
Furniture	13–43	[9, 30]
Packaging	0–9	[0, 6]
Other uses of sawnwood	0–9	[0, 6]
Particleboard	Weighted average of various uses: [40%, 50%] for furniture with ML of 13–43 years, rest [50%, 60%] for non-structural construction, with ML of 10–60 years.	[8, 37]
Insulation materials		[28, 42]
Paper pulp		2
Pulp for textiles		3

Fig. 1. Mean substitution effects of Norwegian forests for seven production alternatives evaluated in 2030, 2040, and 2050, Tg CO₂ a^–1. The figures are calculated for total production quantities, as in Table 2. The cases are arranged in the order of increasing substitution effects. The production alternatives are explained in Tables 1 and 2, and Section 2.1.

Fig. 2. Probability distributions of the difference in avoided emissions (substitution effects) among six production alternatives for Norway compared to the iH2021 case, evaluated across 15 000 states of nature in 2040, Tg CO₂ a^–1. See Tables 1 and 2 in Section 2.1 for the explanations of the production alternatives.

Fig. 3. Mean carbon sinks in forests and harvested wood products related to Norwegian forests for seven cases evaluated in years 2030, 2040, and 2050, Tg CO₂ a^–1. The cases are arranged in the order of declining carbon sinks. The cases are explained in Tables 1 and 2, and Section 2.1.

Fig. 4. Probability distributions of the difference in climate effects among six production alternatives for Norway compared to the iH2021 case, evaluated across 15 000 states of nature in 2040. The effects compared include the carbon sinks of forests and harvested wood products and avoided emissions resulting from the use of harvested wood products, Tg CO₂ a^–1. See Tables 1 and 2 in Section 2.1 for the explanations of the production alternatives.