Pekka Ripatti

Use of log-linear models in forecasting structural changes in Finnish non-industrial private forest ownership

Ripatti P. (2000). Use of log-linear models in forecasting structural changes in Finnish non-industrial private forest ownership. Silva Fennica vol. 34 no. 3 article id 631. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.631

Abstract

This paper presents how log-linear models can be used for modelling and forecasting structural changes of Finnish non-industrial private forest ownership. Two cross-sectional sets of data, which were collected in conjunction with two separate surveys by means of mail questionnaires in 1975 and 1990, were employed. A total of six non-industrial private forest holding and ownership attributes are forecast focusing on the earlier pace of structural change. The results show that the pace of change in the forecast attributes appears to be less than it would be when derived from extrapolation of the earlier trends. The results of the study can be applied to forest policy and forestry extension planning, by providing a more realistic outlook of the future structure of non-industrial private forest ownership.

Keywords
forest policy; forecasting; non-industrial private forestry; log-linear models; ownership changes

Received 15 February 2000 Accepted 29 June 2000 Published 31 December 2000

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