Metoder og muligheter for langsiktige prognoser i skoglig planlegging.Methods and possibilities of long-term forecasts in forest management planning.
This paper describes different methods of long-term forecasts in forest management planning with a special attention on intention forecasts for a total forest property or district. Methods for calculating the sustained yield on the basis of the actual increment or the yearly area cut are discussed. It is concluded that a better estimate of the sustained yield is obtainable by the application of a long-term forecast technique. Forecasts for 100 years should not be viewed as plans, but as a background for making short-term decisions. Some of the long-term-type programmes, such as the programme of maximum profit, sustained yield in volume and in money are discussed briefly.
It is pointed out that there is often present a conflict between the various elements of the policy formulated by a forest owner. This leads to the conclusion that the calculations of the profitability of single projects may be misleading.
The precision of a long-term forecast is discussed, and how under certain assumptions the error of the allowable cut is influenced by errors in area, volume, age etc. It is shown that the precision in area and volume is more important in this connection than, say, the precision in increment. In conclusion, existing knowledge, methods and equipment for calculations constitute a basis for long-term forecasts which make them an important instrument in forest management planning.
The PDF includes a summary in English.
Published in 1964