Kuusen ja männyn siemensadon ennustemalli.Model for predicting the seed crop of Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris
The seed crop of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is predicted with the help of mean monthly temperatures during May–August one and two years before the flowering year. The prediction models were made separately for Lapland and for the rest of Finland. The models are based on 10-year periods of seed crop measurements and climatic data. The total number of time series was 59.
In Lapland, Norway spruce flowered abundantly and produced an abundant seed crop after warm July–August and two years after cool July–August. In other parts of Finland, warm June and July produced a good flowering year, especially if these months were cool two years before the flowering year.
In Lapland, Scots pine flowered abundantly if the whole previous growing season was warm. Elsewhere in Finland, a cool June preceded prolific flowering in the coming year if the rest of the growing season was considerably warmer than the average.
The prediction models explained 37–49 % of the variation in the size of the seed crop. The occurrence of good and poor seed years was usually predicted correctly. Using the presented models, the prediction of the seed crop is obtainable 1.5 year for Norway spruce and 2.5 year for Scots pine before the year of seed fall.
The PDF includes an abstract in English.
Published in 1987