Jukka Malinen, Harri Kilpeläinen, Erkki Verkasalo. (2018). Validating the predicted saw log and pulpwood proportions and gross value of Scots pine and Norway spruce harvest at stand level by Most Similar Neighbour analyses and a stem quality database. Silva Fennica vol. 52 no. 4 article id 9972. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.9972

Keywords: stem quality; bucking; non-parametric prediction; database; assortment recovery; value recovery

Highlights: Non-parametric prediction together with external stem quality database provides predictions usable for pre-harvest assessment at a stand level; The prediction of Norway spruce assortment recovery and value proved to be more accurate than the predictions for Scots pine; RMSE and bias of unit prices were 3.50 € m^–3 and 0.58 € m^–3 for pine and 2.60 € m^–3 and 0.35 € m^–3 for spruce.

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Detailed pre-harvest information about the volumes and properties of growing stocks is needed for increased precision in wood procurement planning for just-in-time wood deliveries by cut-to-length (CTL) harvesters. In the study, the non-parametric Most Similar Neighbour (MSN) methodology was evaluated for predicting external quality of Scots pine and Norway spruce, expressed as stem sections fulfilling the saw log dimension and quality requirements of Finnish forest industry, as they affect the recovery of timber assortments and the value of a pre-harvest stand. Effects of external tree quality were evaluated using saw log recovery and saw log reduction caused by stem defects, as well as total timber value (€) and average unit value (€ m^–3) in a stand. Root mean square error (RMSE) of saw log recovery and reduction were 9.12 percentile points (pp) for Scots pine and 6.38 pp for Norway spruce stands. In the unit value considerations, the predictions compared with measurements resulted in the RMSE of 3.50 € m^–3 and the bias of 0.58 € m^–3 in Scots pine stands and 2.60 € m^–3, and 0.35 € m^–3 in Norway spruce stands, respectively. The presented MSN based approach together with the utilization of the external stem quality database included in the ARVO software could provide dimension and external quality predictions usable for pre-harvest assessment of timber stock at a stand level. This prediction methodology is usable especially in analyses where timber assortment recoveries, values and unit prices are compared when different bucking objectives are used.

Malinen, University of Eastern Finland, School of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: jukka.malinen@uef.fi
Kilpeläinen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Production systems, Yliopistokatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: harri.kilpelainen@luke.fi
Verkasalo, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Production systems, Yliopistokatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: erkki.verkasalo@luke.fi

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