Current issue: 58(5)
The usefulness of forest sector models in forest policy analysis is discussed, mainly based on experiences from Norway. Forest sector modelling is contrasted to two alternative approaches: (i) Intuitive, verbal analysis, and (ii) econometric models. It is concluded that forest sector models, properly developed in contact with the policy makers, should be of considerable value in forest policy analysis.
This paper designs an Economy-Welfare-Environment Adjustment System model (EWEAS model or EWE model in short) which consists of the circular flow of the economic, the welfare, and the environment system of forestry. That is, this model builds the relationship between the systems for material wealth and that for mental wealth.
The EWE model is designed as a complete open system model which describes the economy-welfare-environment circular system in forestry by linking up the internal system of forestry with the surrounding external systems. The EWE model can be manipulated as a policy formation or a policy decision model, and it is available for policy evaluation in the economic, the welfare and the environmental phase of forestry. The model is a basic simulation system model which is reliable in its reproductive fitness, stability and universality. Thus, this model ought to be useful in any country in the world as well as in Japan.
In this paper, the author explains the characteristics of the Japanese forestry planning system and points out some of the problems found therein from the viewpoint of the management of privately-owned forests relating to the economic background and governmental policy.
The forestry planning system is a centralizes type of planning, the planning begins at the top and flows downward and outward the periphery. In order to make this planning system an effective instrument, the district forestry planning founded under the system must approach the problem of how to combine the resources of the forest with the district’s inhabitants and the forest owners; and further, the extent of the effective union of the district and the local timber manufacturing must be examined.
Non-industrial private landowners hold about two-thirds of the forest land in the southern United States. The types of public (state) and private (consulting and industrial) assistance offered to these owners is reviewed. In total, about 1,600 foresters in the South provide management assistance to non-industrial private forest owners. They assist at least 72,000 owners annually, including provision of management plans for about 10 million acres and supervision of over 4 million acres of leased lands.
A brief overview of forestry in European Community (EC) of the 9 is presented. Forestry incentives seem necessary for increasing timber production on private ownership in order to avoid possible price inflation.
In the economic analysis of the program evaluation method proposed here to assess the efficiency of such incentives, a broad EC perspective is recommended to avoid erroneous conclusion. The evaluation made from the prospect of a member country only is artificial and is influenced by EC policies anyway. The evaluation changes depending on whether these EC policies are considered given and immutable or not.
Comprehensive state laws regulating the practice of forest management on private lands are in effect in seven of the United States. Established to protect a wide range of non-timber forest resources and to ensure reforestation after harvest, these laws may impose significant administrative costs on states and significant compliance costs on landowners and timber operators. Total state administration costs for 1984 are estimated at $10.1 and total private sector compliance costs are estimated at $120.5 million, for a total regulation cost of $130.6 million.
The resource protection effectiveness of state forest practice regulation is difficult to quantify. However, agreement is strong that regulation has led to significant improvements in forest resource conditions and has helped to increase reforestation.
In 1979, the Federal Research in the United States instituted a so-called ”tight money” policy which led to a decrease in the demand for stumpage. The decrease in demand brought about lower stumpage prices and, consequently, a waning interest in policies to stimulate NIPF production. The authors report on five recent studies on NIPF behaviour and raise concerns that increases in demand for housing may bring new pressure upon NIPF as a source of wood.
A nation that wishes to enhance its social and economic well-being through more intensive utilization of its forest resources must develop a rather comprehensive policy statement to ensure that the expanded exploitation does not lead to the destruction of these resources. The policy must specify the goals to be achieved, provide general direction on how these goals can be achieved, and develop a system of checks-and-balances to ensure achievement of the long-term objectives. The policy must consider resource protection, the economic needs at the various levels of government, the social impacts of utilization on ways of life in all areas of the nation, and the infrastructure needed in the short and long terms.
In order to understand the present forest policies for the small woodlot of Quebec, it is essential to understand the history of settlement of Quebec. Following this brief description, the author introduces the various forest policies (programs) which have been initiated in Quebec by various levels of governments in order to deal with the management of these lands.
In Japan many governmental projects have been promoted during 35 years since 1950, which were most active in the history of our forestry and wood industry. They were pushed forward for and by high economic growth. This article refers to the development of our forest policy and projects in those days. But as for the future of the forest economics, it is an urgent question to develop the comparative study between every nation’s experience. In order to contribute to this problem, the forest policy is divided into three fields and experiences are discussed.
Standard methods of welfare economics are used in a market simulating framework to evaluate policy measures designed to increase future timber supplies. Forest management cost-share programs are examined using this methodology. The differential regional impact of cost-share payments is considered, as is the distribution of these benefits between stumpage producers (owners of forest land) and stumpage consumers (producers of forest products). Previous estimates of the welfare gains that would result from a higher level of forest management cost-share payments in the southern United States are revised to account for the loss of public revenue resulting from lower future prices. A methodology for comparing alternative policy instruments is discussed, and a preliminary, qualitative comparison is made between the use of cost-share payments and alternative policy measures.
An empirical analysis of the Finnish non-industrial private forest owners indicates that forestry extension has an effect on the supply of timber and the use of cutting potentials. This effect appears to be indirect rather than direct. The use of extension services is likely to increase the frequency of timber sales, which in turn, increases the use of the allowable cut via increased volume of actual cuttings. Forestry extension can also be considered as an intermediate variable through which certain background conditions and owner characteristics affect the use of cutting potential.
To conduct an efficient forest policy, both a normative and a positive theory are necessary. In addition, however, the explicit intertemporal considerations in natural resource economics demand that it is made crystal clear which means are permanent and which are non-permanent. The permanent case is far from easy to solve.
That the theoretical problems have practical relevance is shown by Swedish experience. A practical course of action is to weight possible positive effects from a permanent subsidy against possible deleterious outcomes. It is also desirable to avoid jerkiness in forest policy, which is likely to create uncertainty about the permanence of permanent means.
Law may sometimes be more efficient in creating ”credibility” than economic incentives. Regeneration has been mandatory in Sweden since 1903, and nobody refrains from cutting because he believes that regeneration duty will be abolished in some near future.
Development of timber sale accounting system for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service ordered by the U.S. Congress, has entailed numerous evaluations and research projects. Critics of the current process claims administrative costs are not recovered by the prices paid for Federal timber. However, management of multiple resources for multiple uses makes traditional accounting difficult; i.e., keeping track of cash flows. A further complication involves allocating costs to the various resources (joint cost allocation), for which no nonarbitrary method currently exists. A concurrent issue involves the building of roads for timber harvest into areas released from wilderness consideration. Environmentalists see the road building program of the Federal land management agencies as an additional reason Federal management costs are not recovered from timber-generated revenues. The heart of the issue is which lands are economically suited for timber management, and what nonmarket benefits and costs accrue from the timber management.
The purpose of this paper is to present an approach to evaluate the profitableness of a forest policy program and to discover from among the feasible programs the one that best complies with the desired performance of the economy. At first the procedures of forest policy-making in a country like Finland is considered. After that a method to evaluate forest policy programs is derived.
Some of the quantification problems which face the designer of a forest policy program are discussed. Experiences drawn from the preparation of the Forest 2000 program in Finland are used as examples. Both the defining of goals and the choice of means are surveyed and their interconnection in the planning process emphasized.
The importance of forestry and forest industries to the Finnish economy led, at a very early stage, to a close cooperation between the interest organizations concerned and the government which founded the economic advisory council. The development of the social system in Finland since the 50’s can be described with the help of the neocorporatist theory. This can also apply in part to the forest and forest industry policy. According to Olson’s group theory the representation of interests of the forest owners as a free association was forced to use various incitements to win new members or to maintain old ones. This led to tension with the forest industry which had developed its own activities to approach forest owners. Following the economic crisis, the wish was expressed for an official forestry policy programme. In response to indirect requests to the state, a project committee was formed by the economic advisory council in order to work towards a long-term plan to solve the problems and to carry out the objectives of the forestry and the forest industries. In formulating phase of the policy, the marked neocorporatist consensus between the associations and the state became evident. Certain controversial questions were, however, postponed and thereby remained unresolved. The interest organization of forest owners held an important position throughout all the phases of program design up to their realization.
Comparative analysis could offer a number of advantages in the science of forest policy. Comparisons make use of the compiled material from different countries, point to new origins and solutions of issues of forestry and allow to question the common presuppositions in the national forest policy in a critical way.
The basic requirement of fruitful comparative research is a common scientific framework. In the light of empirical-analytical theory it is more promising to compare only one factor across regions than the whole system. The forest administration could be such a suitable object of comparison in particular because it is to be found all over the world, and it has a formal and partly public organization with a number of similarities. The product of forest administration is policy. The significance of the bureaucratic behaviour in agenda setting, policy formulation, legitimating, and implementation with regard to an issue of forest policy is to be analysed.
The two significant fields of analysis, namely forest administrations and the issues of forest policy characterize the strategies of research. By making use of a collection of papers dealing with forest bureaucracy we can select countries for comparison according to the following criteria: socioeconomic context, space and time. The next step is to analyse comparatively the behaviour of the forest bureaucracy in treating a special forest issue. The explanations can be tested empirically in different countries. Perhaps the dying of the forest could be a suitable issue as an object of comparative analysis which again could enlarge our knowledge about the forest administration as a political factor.
Land use problems are very often a serious obstacle to forestry development in several countries of both developed and developing world. To overcome these problems an integrated land use policy is needed for designing and implementing innovative programs aimed at the integrated development of forestry with other land uses and the social, cultural, political, ecological and economic environment involved. Policy analysis can assist in the success of such programs by identifying the people’s needs and concerns, by gathering information about land capacity, land tenure and the traditional production systems, by testing alternative polices and by evaluating the programs after their implementation so that the necessary readjustments are made.
Forest legislation is one of the important institutional elements for the development and expansion of the forest sector. It provides the structural framework within which national forest policies are set and in turn reflects or should reflect their objectives and priorities. It is also an indispensable instrument for the implementation of those policies.
Forest laws in the sector specific sense have been modified and developed considerably during the last decades. They tend to incorporate more and more provisions on environmental protection and natural resources management and become de facto part of such legislation. Forest legislation as a whole can today only be interpreted meaningfully if it is considered within the framework of an expanding legal system for environmental conservation and social development.
This paper considers the problems of world’s forestry and emphasizes the policy nature of the most threatening issues. A policy science approach is needed in order to be able to provide effective tools to solve the problems. Incremental forest policies followed are evaluated to be too tardy to respond to the many forestry issues of today. Managing the global forestry issues presupposes the design of new and more effective and efficient public policy programs. More profound policy analysis is therefore needed to improve the intellectual basis for planning and decision making. The advancement of the research on the effectiveness presupposes further development of the theories of timber supply and forestry investments as well as the improvement of national forestry statistics. The whole forest policy process should be a subject to intensified systematic research.
This is a discussion paper on certain trends in forestry, and society as a whole which may constitute a major challenge for forest policy analysis in the future. Developed and developing countries are treated separately. In developed countries, one of the problems requiring policy analysis is the rising opportunity cost of forestry and the consequent weakening interest in commercial forestry among nonindustrial private forest owners. In developing countries, the most acute problem is the depletion of forests. While looking at the relative merits of the remedial means actually applied or suggested, major guidelines are needed for a proper balance between commercial timber production and forestry for rural development. Evaluation of past forestry projects is also desirable.
The issue of Silva Fennica comprises 22 papers on forest policy and program analysis, and evaluation presented at the XVIII IUFRO World Congress in 1986 arranged in Ljubljana. The papers discuss the future and role of policy and program analysis, the effectiveness of policy programs on timber supply and private forestry investments as well as the application of forest sector models to policy analysis.
The PDF includes the preface and list of authors in English and an abstract in Finnish.
Three replacement strategies in continuous forest inventory of the Enso-Gutzeit Company have been presented and discussed. The first strategy adopts data from only the last two inventory occasions; the second strategy employs data from all four occasions, in which there are two groups of permanent plots measured on the first three occasions and independently on the last two occasions; the third strategy also utilizes data from all four occasions, but includes only one group permanent plots measured on all four occasions. Results indicate that the last strategy is best for efficiency. The difference between the first two strategies is small.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
The basic density of the wood of the rowan tree (Sorbus aucuparia L.) is almost the same along the stem but that of the bark is increasing along the stem. The moisture content of the wood and of the bark is increasing along the stem. Its strength in the bending and in the compression is high. The volume shrinkage is high.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish
Paratization of Petrova resinella L. in the gall stage was studied in the surrounding of Harjavalta, south-western Finland, in relation to industrial air pollution. Of the studied 283 galls, 28% produced a moth, 52% of the larvae/pupae were paratisized, and 20% were empty or contained a dead larva. The proportion of paratisized galls did not depend on the distance from emission sources of industrial air pollutants.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
The purpose of the study was to determine the effects of the origin of seeds and the location of cultivation of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) on certain properties particularly important to the pulp industry. The research material consisted of six parallel trials of the same 12 provenances. Increment cores were taken of a total of 1,267 sample trees, 19 years old. The location of the trial site generally affected the properties to a larger extent than the origin of the seed. The effect of the variation of wood density and fibre yield on the cultivation values of the provenances was only a few percentages on average, however, at most the effect was nearly 10%. Eastern Finnish provenances adapted well to western Finnish conditions.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish and French.
The structure of 20 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees was analysed as a water transport system. There is a tight linear regression between the cross-sectional area of the stem at the height of its lowest living branch and the cross-sectional area of its coarse roots, between the cross-sectional area of the stem at the height of its lowest living branch and the total cross-sectional area of its branches, and between the cross-sectional area of the base of a branch and the total cross-sectional area of subsidiary branches of that branch. The capacity of successive organs, measured as cross-sectional areas, to transport water was thus found to be regular within a tree.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
This paper is a theoretical study of what is considered to constitute the proper perception of time in forest economics and management. A stumpage appraisal model that recognizes the influence of time is developed within the framework of a national aggregate economy. To demonstrate how a socially optimal land for timber production may be determined in a given nation, a stock-supply model is derived. The stumpage appraisal rule of development determines the market stumpage price that maintains a state of balance between timber production and other land use activities.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
Exposure to phenoxy acids and their effect on worker’s health were studied among 35 exposed forest workers. The control group was 47 non-exposed loggers. The both groups were medically examined before and after their working period including such laboratory analyses as B-differential count, B-thrombocytes. In addition, the exposure to eight ULV sprayers and two clearing saw sprayers were measured in breathing zone.
The mean of phenoxy acid concentrations in urine among all the exposed workers after the working period was 6.5 μmol/l being significantly below the hygienic limit value (14 μmol/l). The mean concentrations of ULV sprayer workers was 7.3 μmol/l and of clearing saw sprayer workers 2.7 μmol/l. The mean of air concentrations among ULV sprayers was 0.23 mg/m3 and among clearing saw sprayers 0.06 mg/m3. No statistically significant differences were noticed in the hematologic parameters and in the enzyme activities of the liver, kidney and muscles between the exposed and control groups before or after the working period. So, it seems that these low exposure levels don’t cause sudden changes in health.
The PDF includes an abstract in English.
Use of tropical forest resources is analysed as part of the world forest resources and global development of forest industry. Finland’s role in the international division of labour of forest industry is investigated. Factors of competitiveness are analysed in order to differentiate specific adjustment constraints in Finland due to competition from developing countries.
It is concluded that in the long run there are two major factors which are restricting the growth of Finnish forest industry. First, tightened resources constraints, and second, competitive shifts in external markets due to new sources of production. Finland has already reached its wood-producing limits of sustained yield. Technological advances in the use of short-fibre raw materials for pulp and paper making, as well as in making programmes for establishing fast-growing plantations, have facilitated the utilization of tropical forest areas. In the short term, however, the competitive threat from LDC wood-processing industry is primarily directed to home markets rather than to exports.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
The paper demonstrates the possibility of using data from small relascope sample plots in the derivation of the regression models which predict the Weibull function parameters for the dbh-distribution. The Weibull parameters describing the basal area dbh-distribution were estimated for relascope sample plots from the Finnish National Forest Inventory. In the first stage of the estimation nonlinear regression analysis was employed to derive initial parameter estimates for the second stage, in which the maximum likelihood method was used. The parameter estimates were employed as dependent variables for the derivation of the regression models; the independent variables comprised of the compartment-wise stand variables generally estimated in ocular inventories.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
The curly-grained trait of Betula pendula Roth is inheritable, but it is persumably not question of only one Mendelian gene since, for instance, there are a number of different types of curly-birch. The progeny obtained from controlled crossing between two curly-birch individuals do not all posses the curly-grained trait.
Plantlets were produced from adult curly-birch (Betula pendula var. carelica). Murashige and Skoog’s medium was used as the culture medium. Growth was initiated on a medium containing 1 mg/l BAP. Bud formation was induced using a medium containing 10 mg/l BAP and 0.2 mg/l NAA. Development of shoots was achieved on a medium containing ½ x Murashige and Skoog’s macrominerals and sucrose, 1/1 x Murashige and Skoog’s microminerals and vitamins, and 0.5 mg/l BAP and 0.5 mg/l IAA. The medium used for inducing root formation was the same as above, but without any growth regulators. The results indicate that adult deciduous trees can be best propagated through tissue culture when the least differentiated cells, i.e. the initial cells of the promeristem, are used as the startin material. The axillary buds provide easily available study material which can be prepared with little difficulty and are continuously renewed.
The PDF includes a summary in Finnish.
Gravimetrically expressed nutrient concentrations of soil analysis were converted to volumetric values using dry bulk densities measured in the natural state and in the laboratory after air-drying and sieving the samples. The aim was to examine, using volumetric samples representing different soil classes, exactly how the converted nutrient values calculated by this laboratory method describe volumetric nutrient contents in undisturbed soil. In the fine soil classes undisturbed bulk density was higher than laboratory bulk density and converted nutrient concentrations were too small. In coarser soil classes the reverse was true, and the values were too high.
The PDF includes an abstract in English.
A mathematical model was developed for determining the value of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) stems on the basis of sawing and pulping. The model was based on selling prices of sawn goods, pulp and other products as well as processing costs. Sawing was applied to large-dimension parts of stems and pulping to other parts and small stems. Bark and other residues were burned. The quality of pine stems was described by the distance of the lowest dead branch. In spruce only stem size affected the quality-
According to the results, the size of stem affects considerably the value of pine stems and clearly that of spruce stems. The main reason is an increase in the productivity of frame sawing as the stem size increases. In pine another factor is the higher price of sawn goods. The effect of pulp price increases as the stem size decreases. Even in large sized stems the effect of pulp was notable as the value of chips and saw dust was determined on the basis of product values in export. The competition ability of mechanical pulp was greatly affected by the price of electricity.
The PDF includes an abstract in English.
A computer model was developed for predicting knottiness of wood material of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) and birch (Betula sp). The prediction included location of knots, their size and quality, i.e. if they are dead or living knots. The model suits best for tree species where branches are born at the base of shoots, in Finland such tree species is Scots pine.
The usefulness of the model was tested in the prediction of knots in wooden elements of joinery industry. According to the results, the shape of cross section affects the surface quality of elements. Especially useful is a quadratic cross section as it increases the probability to get a knotless surface.
The PDF includes an abstract in English.
Dimensions (length, width and thickness) of needles in crowns of young Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) were found to be related linearly to each other. Similarly, the needle area was linearly correlated with the needle biomass. In the lower crown, needle length was linearly correlated with the length of the shoot, but in the upper crown needle length did not vary according to any regular pattern. Needle density was negatively correlated with shoot length. In the lower crown the needle density varied 20–40 cm-1 and in the upper crown 15– 20 cm-1. The increasing angle of aging needles seemed to be characteristic for Scots pine shoots.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
The relationship between industrial air pollutants and the occurrence of galls of Petrova resinella (Lepidoptera, Torticiadae) was studied around the industrialized town of Harjavalta in Western Finland. There were 44 sampling sites set out at logarithmic distances along five transects (NW, W, SW, SE) froma a distive source of emissions. Each site consisted of three circular sample plots (30 m2) in young Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands. The number of galls, including cankers from several years earlier, was highest in the vicinity of the factory complex on each transect. The highest number of two-year-old galls containing living larvae was usually recorded at the ends of the transects several kilometres from the factories. However, the significance of the differences both between zones and transects was rather low. Correlations between the deposition of heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn), used as an indication of the general level of air pollution, and the total number of galls, were positive and generally highly significant. It is concluded that P. resinella has benefitted from air pollution although perhaps to less extent than some sap-sucking species.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
This paper includes the publishing guidelines for the scientific publications of the Finnish Society of Forest Science. The Society publishes the series of Silva Fennica and Acta Forestalia Fennica.
Six seed collections were made in September–December 1984 in a natural Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stand in Southern Finland. The seeds were germinated immediately after the cone collection and three photoperiods (0.8 and 24 hours) were used in germination tests.
The seeds collected in September and October possessed relative dormancy, i.e. they did not germinate in darkness and at 10°C. Later in November and December the seeds were capable to germinate in darkness and at low temperature also. The gradual change in germination capacity is attributed to chilling temperatures in natural environments or in cone storage.
The PDF includes a summary in English.
A model was developed in order to describe the peeling of veneer for determining value relationship for birch veneer logs and stems. The model was based on selling prices of veneer and other products as well as processing costs. The model was utilized for determining the effect of various input variables on the log value.
According to the results, the effect of tree size was important for the value of raw material. Even knottiness had an effect although only in the higher manufacturing costs of knotty veneer were taken into account. Pruning was a method to increase substantially the proportion of knotless veneer.
The PDF includes an abstract in English.
The Forest 2000 Programme is a long-term programme for forestry and the forest industries in Finland. It attempts to obtain a better integration of timber production and other forms of forest use. The total annual cut is to be increased by 15 million m3 by the year 2010. This is almost one third greater than the level during the first few years of the 1980’s. In order to achieve the cutting targets, the cut area will have to be increased by almost one third by the turn of the century. The area of thinnings will experience the greatest increase. Considerable changes are proposed in silvicultural and basic improvement work. According to the programme, the growth of the raw-material base and the consumption of the wood-based products will permit an annual increase of about 3% in the production of the forest industries as a whole until the end of the century. This would be the same as the target growth rate of the GNP.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
The natural resistance of Finnish-grown Pinus sylvestris L. heartwood to Macrotermitinae termites was tested in Zambia in graveyard conditions. The heartwood exhibited some natural resistance but durability was, however, far from practical immunity. There was significant tree-to-tree variation in the resistance of heartwood of P. Sylvestris.
The PDF includes a summary in Finnish.
The susceptibility of Betula pendula Roth and B. pubescens Ehrh. Saplings to stem spot disease caused by Godronia multispora J.W. Groves and Fusarium avenaceum (Fr.) Sacc. was studeied. B. pendula proved to be more susceptible than B. pubescens on all studied soils, especially on peat. G. multispora was more pathogenic than F. avenaceum. Inoculations with G. multispora in the spring and summer induced smaller cancers than in the autumn.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
Different approaches to the study of the annual rhythm of forest trees are described and compared by analysing the concepts and theories presented in the literature. The seasonality varying morphological and physiological state of forest trees is referred to as the annual rhythm s. lat., from which the annual ontogenetic rhythm is separated as a distinct type. The dormancy phenomena of the trees are grouped into four categories. Theories concerning the regulation of the annual rhythm are divided into two main types, the most common examples of which are the photoperiod theory and the temperature sum theory. Recent efforts towards a synthetic theory are described.
The PDF includes a summary in English.
Variation of monoterpene composition of Pinus sylvestris L. was studied in Southern, Central and Northern Finland using data from both natural stands and plus trees. The natural stands were analysed using different techniques and for fewer terpenes than the plus trees.
There were large differences between areas in the proportion of 3-carene in trees from natural stands, as has been discussed by previous authors. The proportion of 3-carene is bimodally distributed and believed to be controlled by a single gene with large effect. For this reason, we stratified our samples into high carene (>10%) and low carene (<10%) groups. Univariate analysis did not reveal any additional differences between natural populations in different zones for components other than 3-carene. In plus trees, several components showed significant differences, but the proportion of 3-carene did not differ between areas. Multivariate discrimination analysis did not distinguish between areas for natural stands. However, for the plus trees discriminant analysis allowed us to discriminate between the zones relatively efficiently. The proportion of correct classification was greater than 64% using the best methods. The central zone was most distinct, and 80% of its trees were correctly classified. Broad generalizations are not possible due to the limitations imposed by our data. Our analysis of phenotypic variation does not support the suggestion that plus trees selected from the north represent a southern type.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.