Henrik Heräjärvi, Adam Taylor, Antti Mutanen, Miika Tolvanen, Jouni Pykäläinen. (2026). Effects of wood products substitution on fossil carbon emissions in Finland, the European Union, and the World. Silva Fennica vol. 60 no. 2 article id 25043. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.25043

Keywords: avoided fossil emissions; carbon handprint; climate policies; substitution impact

Highlights: Use of forests is an important component of climate change mitigation with instant impacts; Product and energy substitutions are the only known forest-related mechanisms substantially affecting fossil greenhouse gas emissions; Substitution impact by wood use corresponds to the fossil emissions of Finland, while in the EU and the world it is similar to the reported LULUCF emissions.

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The main driver of climate change is fossil carbon emissions that can be avoided by using renewables instead of fossil-intensive energy or materials. A displacement factor (DF) quantifies fossil emissions avoided by wood use instead of a fossil material. Substitution impact of wood products can be calculated by multiplying their product-specific DFs and their production volumes. We quantified the substitution impact in Finland, the European Union (EU), and worldwide for 2020 using two different DF sets. We extended the analysis out to 2040 in Finland. Depending on DFs used, the avoided fossil emissions by wood use were 13–38 (Finnish wood), 149–317 (EU wood), and 971–2014 (world wood) MtCO₂e in 2020. These correspond to 37–94% (Finland), 6–12% (EU), and 3–6% (world) of total fossil emissions in their respective areas, highlighting the importance of substitution impacts. Despite the uncertainties, the estimates show large climate effects. In Finland, the substitution impact approaches the scale of the total fossil emissions of the country, while at the EU and global scales, the impact is similar in scale to the entire reported LULUCF criterion. The DFs for wood use may decrease in the future because of the decarbonization of the energy systems used in the production of alternatives to wood: steel, concrete, and plastics. However, wood products will remain important in avoiding fossil emissions by providing bio-based material and energy options.

Heräjärvi, University of Eastern Finland, School of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7256-3887 E-mail: henrik.herajarvi@uef.fi
Taylor, University of Tennessee, School of Natural Resources, 203 CRC Material Sci & Tech, 2506 Jacob Drive, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA E-mail: mtaylo29@utk.edu
Mutanen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Bioeconomy and environment, Yliopistokatu 6 B, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: antti.mutanen@luke.fi
Tolvanen, University of Eastern Finland, School of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: miika.tolvanen@primatimber.fi
Pykäläinen, University of Eastern Finland, School of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: jouni.pykalainen@uef.fi

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