Olli-Pekka Tikkanen, Ilari Lehtonen. (2023). Changing climatic drivers of European spruce bark beetle outbreaks: a comparison of locations around the Northern Baltic Sea. Silva Fennica vol. 57 no. 3 article id 23003. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.23003

Keywords: climate change; temperature sum; precipitation; Ips typographus; hydrothermic index

Highlights: Temperatures in the Northern Baltic Sea area will reach new and higher levels in all studied climate change scenarios, speeding up the development of the European spruce bark beetle; Unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced rapidly, more frequent droughts will facilitate spruce bark beetle outbreaks, especially in Sweden and, to a lesser extent, in Estonia and in Southern Finland.

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European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus [L.]; SBB) damage has reached extreme and unprecedented levels in East Central Sweden, likely driven by increasing temperatures and severe drought due to climate change. However, SBB outbreaks have been less severe on the eastern side of the Baltic Sea, in Estonia and Finland, than in Sweden. This study investigated how precipitation, temperature sum, and droughts (hydrothermic index) have varied in land areas surrounding the Baltic Sea. We studied past meteorological observations from 1950 to 1999. We modeled the effect of climate change on precipitation and temperature using three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and multiple (17–23) climate models. Future climate projections (up to 2100) were made for Southeastern Estonia, Southern Finland, and East Central Sweden. Weather data showed that temperature sums had been high and droughts severe in the 2010s, particularly in East Central Sweden, where SBB outbreaks have been a more significant problem than on the eastern shores of the Baltic Sea. Future climate projections suggest that increases in temperature sum will further enhance SBB reproduction, especially in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In all climate change scenarios, drought continues to be a problem in East Central Sweden, potentially facilitating SBB outbreaks. In addition, moderate and severe droughts may become more frequent in Southeastern Estonia and Southern Finland if climate change proceeds as predicted in the RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenarios.

Tikkanen, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3875-2772 E-mail: Olli-Pekka.Tikkanen@uef.fi
Lehtonen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7317-9580 E-mail: Ilari.Lehtonen@fmi.fi

article id 1120, category Research article

Ilari Lehtonen, Petri Hoppula, Pentti Pirinen, Hilppa Gregow. (2014). Modelling crown snow loads in Finland: a comparison of two methods. Silva Fennica vol. 48 no. 3 article id 1120. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.1120

Keywords: climate; forests; snow damage; rime; dry snow; wet snow; frozen snow

Highlights: A new method to model crown snow loads is presented and compared with a previously published simpler method; The heaviest crown snow loads in Finland are found to typically occur in the eastern parts of the country; The relative importance of different snow load types varies between different regions of Finland.

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The spatial occurrence of heavy crown snow loads in Finland between 1961 and 2010 is studied by using for the first time a model that classifies the snow load into four different types: rime, dry snow, wet snow and frozen snow. In producing this climatology, we used meteorological observations made at 29 locations across Finland. The model performance is evaluated against classified daily images of canopy snow cover and with the help of two short case studies. The results are further compared to those achieved with a simpler method used in previous studies. The heaviest crown snow loads are found to occur typically in eastern Finland. The new method reveals that this holds not only for the total snow loads but also for the different snow load types, although there are certain differences in their geographical occurrence. The greatest benefit achieved with the new method is the inclusion of rime accretion. The forests most prone to heavy riming are those located on tree-covered hills in northern Finland, but as the terrain elevation affects riming efficiency greatly, these small-scale variations in the snow load amounts could not be described in this study in great detail. Moreover, the results are more inaccurate in northern Finland where variations in the terrain elevation are greater than elsewhere. Otherwise, the largest uncertainties in this study are related to wind speed measurements and possibly partly because of that, we were not able to detect any significant trends in the crown snow-load amounts over the study period.

Lehtonen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland E-mail: ilari.lehtonen@fmi.fi
Hoppula, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland E-mail: petri.hoppula@fmi.fi
Pirinen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland E-mail: pentti.pirinen@fmi.fi
Gregow, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland E-mail: hilppa.gregow@fmi.fi

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