Anne Toppinen. (1997). Testing for Granger-causality in the Finnish roundwood market. Silva Fennica vol. 31 no. 2 article id 5620. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.a8521

Keywords: roundwood market; forecasting; timber market; stumpage prices; statistical analysis; Granger-causality; time series analysis

Abstract | View details | Full text in PDF | Author Info

The existence and direction of causal relationships between the time series for the Finnish roundwood market for the period 1960–1994 is tested. Using simple bivariate analysis, we found evidence that for both logs and pulpwood, the lagged prices are helpful in forecasting quantity for the next year, but not vice versa. Saw log stumpage prices have significantly Granger-caused pulpwood prices over the business cycles, but the effect has diminished towards the present time. For quantities traded, the direction of causality was rather from pulpwood to saw logs. The consistency of bivariate test results was checked by the Granger-causality tests within trivariate VAR-models for both markets, and the results were found to be fairly similar to bivariate tests. The price fluctuations in the international markets for forest products have been found to be carried to domestic wood markets dominantly via the pulpwood part of the market.

Toppinen, E-mail: at@mm.unknown

Click this link to register to Silva Fennica.

If you are a registered user, log in to save your selected articles for later access.

Contents alert

Your selected articles
Send to email

Eräjää S., Halme P. et al. (2010) The volume and composition of dead wood on tradi.. Silva Fennica vol. 44 no. 2 article id 150 (remove) | Edit comment

Givnish T. J., (2002) Adaptive significance of evergreen vs. deciduous.. Silva Fennica vol. 36 no. 3 article id 535 (remove) | Edit comment

Vuori E., (1913) Coniferous tree stands of the state forest “Vesi.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 2 no. 1 article id 7528 (remove) | Edit comment

Huang W., (1998) Productive coexistence and gain in agroforestry .. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 0 no. 260 article id 7520 (remove) | Edit comment

Hildén N. A., (1934) Observations on forestry in private farms in Fin.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 40 no. 33 article id 7310 (remove) | Edit comment

Laitakari E., (1935) Activities of Finnish Society of Forest Sciences.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 42 no. 1 article id 7318 (remove) | Edit comment

Meurman O., (1963) Notes on ornamental trees and shrubs at the Depa.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 76 no. 3 article id 7143 (remove) | Edit comment

Kangas A., Myllymäki M. et al. (2023) Understanding uncertainty in forest resources maps Silva Fennica vol. 57 no. 2 article id 22026 (remove) | Edit comment

Lee D., Siipilehto J. et al. (2021) Models for diameter distribution and tree height.. Silva Fennica vol. 55 no. 5 article id 10612 (remove) | Edit comment

Follow @SilvaFennica