Jyrki Kangas, Pekka Leskinen, Timo Pukkala. (2000). Integrating timber price scenario modeling with tactical management planning of private forestry at forest holding level. Silva Fennica vol. 34 no. 4 article id 621. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.621

Keywords: decision support; optimization; adaptive behaviour; non-industrial private forestry; tactical planning; timber price modelling

Abstract | View details | Full text in PDF | Author Info

In forest management planning, deterministic timber prices are typically assumed. However, real-life timber prices vary in the course of time, and also price peaks, i.e. exceptionally high timber prices, might occur. If land-owners can utilise the price variation by selling timber with the high prices, they are able to increase their net revenues correspondingly. In this study, an approach is presented to study the timber price variation and its significance in the optimization of forest management. The approach utilizes stochastic timber price scenario modelling, simulation of forest development, and optimization of forest management. The approach is presented and illustrated by means of a case study. It is shown how the degree of uncertainty due to variation in timber prices can be analyzed in tactical forest planning of private forestry, and how the potential benefits of adaptive timber-selling behaviour for a forest landowner can be computed by using the approach. The effects of stochastic timber prices on the choice of forest plan are studied at the forest holding level considering also the spacing and type of cuttings and the optimal cutting order. A forest plan prepared under the assumption of constant timber price very seldom results in optimal forest management. Through studying the effects of stochastic timber prices, forest landowners and other decision makers obtain valuable information about the significance of adaptive timber selling behaviour. The presented methodology can also be used in analysing the land-owners’ economic risks as a function of time-price structure.

Kangas, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Kannus Research Station, P.O. Box 44, FIN-69101 Kannus, Finland E-mail: jyrki.kangas@metla.fi
Leskinen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Kannus Research Station, P.O. Box 44, FIN-69101 Kannus, Finland E-mail: pl@nn.fi
Pukkala, University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forestry, P.O. Box 111, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: tp@nn.fi

Click this link to register to Silva Fennica.

If you are a registered user, log in to save your selected articles for later access.

Contents alert

Your selected articles
Send to email

Nieminen M., Ahti E. et al. (2005) Capacity of riparian buffer zones to reduce sedi.. Silva Fennica vol. 39 no. 3 article id 371 (remove) | Edit comment

Rune G., (2003) Slits in container wall improve root structure a.. Silva Fennica vol. 37 no. 3 article id 493 (remove) | Edit comment

Kallio T., (1972) An example on the economic loss caused by decay .. Silva Fennica vol. 6 no. 2 article id 4865 (remove) | Edit comment

Donis J., Kitenberga M. et al. (2017) The forest fire regime in Latvia during 1922–201.. Silva Fennica vol. 51 no. 5 article id 7746 (remove) | Edit comment

Brown R. T., Mikola P. (1974) The influence of fruticose soil lichens upon the.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 0 no. 141 article id 7575 (remove) | Edit comment

Kuusela K., Setälä K. (1959) Koe metsikköarviointien suorittamiseksi helikopt.. Silva Fennica vol. no. 97 article id 4684 (remove) | Edit comment

Skrøppa T., Solheim H. et al. (2015) Genetic variation, inheritance patterns and pare.. Silva Fennica vol. 49 no. 1 article id 1191 (remove) | Edit comment

Follow @SilvaFennica