Jouni Siipilehto, Harri Mäkinen, Kjell Andreassen, Mikko Peltoniemi. (2021). Models for integrating and identifying the effect of senescence on individual tree survival probability for Norway spruce. Silva Fennica vol. 55 no. 2 article id 10496. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.10496

Keywords: forest dynamics; model comparison; between-tree competition; mortality model

Highlights: The effect of senescence was integrated into an individual tree survival model; The best model showed good fit for managed, unmanaged and old-growth stands; The probability for a large tree to survive decreased with increasing stand age; The best performed model included an interaction term between stem diameter and stand age and also stand age as a separate independent variable.

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Ageing and competition reduce trees’ ability to capture resources, which predisposes them to death. In this study, the effect of senescence on the survival probability of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) was analysed by fitting alternative survival probability models. Different model formulations were compared in the dataset, which comprised managed and unmanaged plots in long-term forest experiments in Finland and Norway, as well as old-growth stands in Finland. Stand total age ranged from 19 to 290 years. Two models were formulated without an age variable, such that the negative coefficient for the squared stem diameter described a decreasing survival probability for the largest trees. One of the models included stand age as a separate independent variable, and three models included an interaction term between stem diameter and stand age. According to the model including stand age and its interaction with stem diameter, the survival probability curves could intersect each other in stands with a similar structure but a different mean age. Models that did not include stand age underestimated the survival rate of the largest trees in the managed stands and overestimated their survival rate in the old-growth stands. Models that included stand age produced more plausible predictions, especially for the largest trees. The results supported the hypothesis that the stand age and senescence of trees decreases the survival probability of trees, and that the ageing effect improves survival probability models for Norway spruce.

Siipilehto, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Natural resources, Latokartanonkaari 9, P.O. Box 2, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland E-mail: jouni.siipilehto@luke.fi
Mäkinen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Production systems, Latokartanonkaari 9, P.O. Box 2, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1820-6264 E-mail: harri.makinen@luke.fi
Andreassen, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), NO-1431 Ås, Norway E-mail: kjellandreassen@gmail.com
Peltoniemi, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Bioeconomy and environment, Latokartanonkaari 9, P.O. Box 2, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2028-6969 E-mail: mikko.peltoniemi@luke.fi

article id 243, category Research article

Rupert Seidl, Werner Rammer, Petra Lasch, Franz-Werner Badeck, Manfred J. Lexer. (2008). Does conversion of even-aged, secondary coniferous forests affect carbon sequestration? A simulation study under changing environmental conditions. Silva Fennica vol. 42 no. 3 article id 243. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.243

Keywords: forest management; Norway spruce; climate change mitigation; PICUS; 4C; model comparison

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To circumvent problems associated with even-aged, pure coniferous stands propagated outside their natural range alternative management strategies and conversion programs are currently discussed in Central Europe. However, a mainstreaming of such adapted silvicultural systems with climate change mitigation objectives is missing to date. In this study the objective was to assess in situ C storage under conditions of climate change in a secondary Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forest management unit in Austria. Four management strategies (Norway spruce age class forestry, transition to continuous cover forestry with Norway spruce, conversion to mixed conifer/broadleaved stands, no management) were investigated under current climate and two transient climate change scenarios in a simulation study. By comparing the results of two independent forest ecosystem models (PICUS v1.41, 4C) applied under identical forcings and boundary conditions we aimed at addressing uncertainties in model-based projections. A transition to continuous cover forestry increased C storage in all climate scenarios (+45.4 tC·ha^–1 to +74.0 tC·ha^–1 over the 100 year analysis period) compared to the approximately balanced C budget under the age class system. For the mixed conifer/broadleaved management variant predictions of the two models diverged significantly (+29.4 tC·ha^–1 and –10.6 tC·ha^–1 in PICUS and 4C respectively, current climate). With regard to climate change impacts both models agreed on distinct effects on productivity but lower sensitivity of C stocks due to compensation from respiration and adaptive harvest levels. In conclusion, considering the potential effects of silvicultural decisions on C stocks climate change mitigation should be addressed explicitly in programs advocating targeted change in management paradigms.

Seidl, Institute of Silviculture, BOKU, Vienna, Austria E-mail: rupert.seidl@boku.ac.at
Rammer, Institute of Silviculture, BOKU, Vienna, Austria E-mail: wr@nn.at
Lasch, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam, Germany E-mail: pl@nn.de
Badeck, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam, Germany E-mail: fwb@nn.de
Lexer, Institute of Silviculture, BOKU, Vienna, Austria E-mail: mjl@nn.at

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