Anssi Ahtikoski, Kari Väätäinen, Perttu Anttila, Juha Laitila, Antti Mutanen, Jari Lindblad, Lauri Sikanen, Johanna Routa. (2024). The effects of the EU’s forest-related policies on harvesting costs in Finland. Silva Fennica vol. 58 no. 3 article id 23018. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.23018

Keywords: forests; scenario approach; harvesting costs; directives and regulations; EU legislation; structural systems analysis

Highlights: The EU’s forest-related policies set direct and indirect limitations on the harvesting operations and operating environment; The effect on harvesting costs of Directives and Regulations depends on the magnitude of policy implementation; In a high-impact scenario, harvesting costs could increase by as much as 18% from the current level of costs.

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The EU’s influence on national forest policies is growing, and the implementation of forest-related policies proposed by the Commission will affect the practice of forestry in Europe. For instance, the Nature Restoration Law sets concrete areal goals for restoring forest ecosystems and for conservation, the Deforestation Regulation requires meticulous tracking of wood’s origin, and the renewed Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) sets new criteria to sustainable forest biomass procurement. So far there have been no studies that have looked into the impacts from the economic and operational point of view. In this study, structural systems analysis was first performed to discover the relevant variables (and their functioning) associated with the roundwood harvesting operations and the operating environment. A scenario approach was then applied to capture the potential levels of implementation of the EU’s forest-related policies. Finally, using different scenarios (low-, moderate- and high-impact) and a systems analysis framework, the impact of alternative levels of implementation was quantified in terms of harvesting costs, measured in € m^–3. The results indicate that with the low- and moderate-impact scenarios the harvesting costs would increase by less than 10% from the current levels in three different regions in Finland. Such an increase (less than 10%) could be tolerated over a period of a few years, but a sudden increase is likely to lead to challenges to the running of businesses. With the high-impact scenario the harvesting costs would increase by between 15% and 18%, depending on the region. This magnitude of increase (of approximately a sixth) corresponds to a severe change in the roundwood harvesting operations and operating environment.

Ahtikoski, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Tekniikankatu 1, FI-33720 Tampere, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1658-3813 E-mail: anssi.ahtikoski@luke.fi
Väätäinen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Yliopistonkatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6886-0432 E-mail: kari.vaatainen@luke.fi
Anttila, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6131-392X E-mail: perttu.anttila@luke.fi
Laitila, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Yliopistonkatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: juha.laitila@luke.fi
Mutanen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Yliopistonkatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0533-9356 E-mail: antti.mutanen@luke.fi
Lindblad, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Yliopistonkatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0009-0003-6766-6587 E-mail: jari.lindblad@luke.fi
Sikanen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Yliopistonkatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: lauri.sikanen@luke.fi
Routa, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Yliopistonkatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7225-1798 E-mail: johanna.routa@luke.fi

article id 697, category Research article

Kari Pasanen. (1998). Integrating variation in tree growth into forest planning. Silva Fennica vol. 32 no. 1 article id 697. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.697

Keywords: risk; growth index; ARMA models; scenario approach

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Forest planning is always influenced by uncertain factors. Variations in growth, outcome of regeneration, timber prices, costs and mortality cannot be avoided, whereas the quality of inventory data and the models used for estimation of the state and development of forests can be improved. Methods have been developed for incorporating risk and attitude toward risk in decision analysis, but there has been a lack of good models for dealing with the various sources of risk. The aim of this study was to estimate stochastic models for the variation in growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), Norway spruce (Picea abies) and birch (Betula pendula and Betula pubescens). The said models had to be capable of generating growth scenarios, and thus correlations between series had to be taken into account. ARMA models were estimated for mean growth index series from Pohjois-Karjala, eastern Finland. Several ARMA models, some of which had seasonal parameters, were found to be adequate for each series. Non-seasonal AR(1) and seasonal AR(1,1) models were used to produce growth scenarios in the case study, in which variation in growth was integrated into forest planning.

Pasanen, University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forestry, P.O. BOX 111, 80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: pasanen@gis.joensuu.fi

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