Jouni Siipilehto, Miika Rajala. (2019). Model for diameter distribution from assortments volumes: theoretical formulation and a case application with a sample of timber trade data for clear-cut sections. Silva Fennica vol. 53 no. 1 article id 10062. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.10062

Keywords: bucking; optimization; simplex method; truncated Weibull function

Highlights: The Weibull distribution was solved successfully from assortment volumes using optimization; The solved distribution provided accurate assortment volume when the input variables were correct; Goodness-of-fit tests indicate the compatibility between the solved distribution and the cut trees, according to harvester data; Timber trade contracts showed overestimated average merchantable tree sizes, which resulted in an underestimation of the number of cut trees; The reason for underestimation seemed to be in the decreasing distributions.

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This study examined a theoretical model for stand structures from the volumes of pulpwood and saw logs of clear-cut stands. The average stem size was used to estimate the number of cut trees. The distribution was solved using nonlinear derivative-free optimization. The truncated 2-parameter Weibull distribution was used to describe the stand structure of the commercial stems. This method was first tested with harvester data collected from seven clear-cut stands in southern Finland. Validation included reliability in the stand characteristics and goodness-of-fit of the species-specific distributions. The distributions provided unbiased estimates for the saw log volume, while the bias in the estimated pulpwood volume was 2%. The standard stand characteristics from the Weibull distributions corresponded notably well with the harvester data. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test rejected two distributions out of 21 cases, when the accurate input variables were available for the theoretical model. The results of the study suggest that the presented method is a relevant option for predicting the stand structure. In practice, the reliability of the presented method was dependent on the quality of the information available from the stand prior to cutting. With a timber trade data set, the solution for the distribution for a clear-cut section was found. The goodness-of-fit was dependent on the accuracy of the visually assessed timber trade variables. Especially the average stem size proved difficult to assess due to high number of understorey pulpwood stems. Due to overestimated average stem sizes, the solved number of harvested trees was underestimated. Less than 50% of the distributions predicted for clear-cut sections passed the KS test.

Siipilehto, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, P.O. Box 2, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland E-mail: jouni.siipilehto@luke.fi
Rajala, Metsä Group, Revontulenpuisto 2, P.O. Box 10, 02020 METSÄ, FI-02100 Espoo, Finland E-mail: miika.rajala@metsagroup.com

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