Arto Haara, Pekka Leskinen. (2009). The assessment of the uncertainty of updated stand-level inventory data. Silva Fennica vol. 43 no. 1 article id 219. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.219

Keywords: uncertainty; measurement error; simulation; non-parametric methods; observed error; stand-level inventory

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Predictions of growth and yield are essential in forest management planning. Growth predictions are usually obtained by applying complex simulation systems, whose accuracy is difficult to assess. Moreover, the computerised updating of old inventory data is increasing in the management of forest planning systems. A common characteristic of prediction models is that the uncertainties involved are usually not considered in the decision-making process. In this paper, two methods for assessing the uncertainty of updated forest inventory data were studied. The considered methods were (i) the models of observed errors and (ii) the k-nearest neighbour method. The derived assessments of uncertainty were compared with the empirical estimates of uncertainty. The practical utilisation of both methods was considered as well. The uncertainty assessments of updated stand-level inventory data using both methods were found to be feasible. The main advantages of the two studied methods include that bias as well as accuracy can be assessed.

Haara, University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: arto.haara@joensuu.fi
Leskinen, Finnish Environment Institute, Research Programme for Production and Consumption, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: pl@nn.fi

article id 486, category Research article

Arto Haara. (2003). Comparing simulation methods for modelling the errors of stand inventory data. Silva Fennica vol. 37 no. 4 article id 486. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.486

Keywords: measurement error; simulation; stand-level inventory; non-parametric estimation; Monte Carlo methods

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Forest management planning requires information about the uncertainty inherent in the available data. Inventory data, including simulated errors, are infrequently utilised in forest planning studies for analysing the effects of uncertainty on planning. Usually the errors in the source material are ignored or not taken into account properly. The aim of this study was to compare different methods for generating errors into the stand-level inventory data and to study the effect of erroneous data on the calculation of specieswise and standwise inventory results. The material of the study consisted of 1842 stands located in northern Finland and 41 stands located in eastern Finland. Stand-level ocular inventory and checking inventory were carried out in all study stands by professional surveyors. In simulation experiments the methods considered for error generation were the 1nn-method, the empirical errors method and the Monte Carlo method with log-normal and multivariate log-normal error distributions. The Monte Carlo method with multivariate error distributions was found to be the most flexible simulation method. This method produced the required variation and relations between the errors of the median basal area tree characteristics. However, if the reference data are extensive the 1nn-method, and in certain conditions also the empirical errors method, offer a useful tool for producing error structures which reflect reality.

Haara, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Centre, P.O.Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: arto.haara@metla.fi

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