Select issue
Silva Fennica 1926-1997
1990-1997
1980-1989
1970-1979
1960-1969
1950-1959
1940-1949
1926-1939
Acta Forestalia Fennica
1992-1999
1984-1991
1974-1983
1968-1973
1953-1968
1933-1952
1913-1932
Articles containing the keyword 'transition matrix model'
Category : Research article
article id 23012,
category
Research article
(2023).
Future browsing damage in seedling stands according to projected forest resources and moose population density.
Silva Fennica
vol.
57
no.
2
article id 23012.
https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.23012
Keywords:
forest management planning;
forest development simulation;
forest projection;
Markov chain;
scenario analysis;
transition matrix model
Highlights:
Projections of forest resources and seedling stands damaged by moose browsing; Damaged seedling stand area modelled by moose population and forest characteristics; Moose damage predicted by the age class structure of simulated future forests.
Abstract |
Full text in HTML
|
Full text in PDF |
Author Info
An important modifier of forests and forestry practices is browsing by cervids. As high populations of moose (Alces alces L.) cause extensive forest damage in the Fennoscandian boreal forests, models should be able to predict the susceptibility of projected forest structures to browse damage. We augmented the European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM) for the area of seedling stands damaged by moose. The augmented model was tested in projecting both forest resources and moose damage for 18 million hectares of forest land in Finland, based on input data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI). Modeling the area of seedling stands damaged as a function of moose population density, forest characteristics, and region-specific interactions of these variables was found to work realistically for 30 years, predicting that the area of seedling stands damaged by moose would increase by up to a third from the last NFI observation. Our work lays the groundwork for modeling consequential, large-scale ecological and socio-economic effects of moose browsing.
-
Vauhkonen,
University of Eastern Finland, School of Forest Sciences, Yliopistokatu 7, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland; University of Helsinki, Department of Forest Sciences, Latokartanonkaari 7, FI-00014 Helsingin yliopisto, Finland
E-mail:
jari.vauhkonen@uef.fi
- Matala, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Natural resources, Yliopistokatu 6 B, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: juho.matala@luke.fi
-
Nikula,
Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Natural resources, Ounasjoentie 6, FI-96200 Rovaniemi, Finland
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8372-8440
E-mail:
ari.nikula@luke.fi
Click this link to register to Silva Fennica.
If you are a registered user, log in to save your selected articles for later access.
Your selected articles
Silva Fennica ·
Finnish Society of Forest Science
