Xingji Jin, Timo Pukkala, Fengri Li, Lihu Dong. (2019). Developing growth models for tree plantations using inadequate data – a case for Korean pine in Northeast China. Silva Fennica vol. 53 no. 4 article id 10217. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.10217

Keywords: Pinus koraiensis; optimization-based modeling; quantile regression; self-thinning

Highlights: The permanent sample plots of Chinese plantation trees have not been designed for producing data for growth modeling; We used various methods to deal with the inadequacies of sample plot data; Optimization was used to fit diameter increment and survival models using data with varying measurement intervals and tree identification errors; Quantile regression was used to model self-thinning limit.

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Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis Siebold & Zucc.) is economically the most important tree species in northeast China. Korean pine plantations are established and managed for the production of timber and seeds. Despite the importance of the species, few models have been developed for the comparison of alternative management schedules. Model development is affected by the fact that permanent sample plots and thinning experiments have not been designed and managed for modeling purposes. The permanent sample plots include few non-thinned plots, and weak trees are removed in thinning treatments, leading to low mortality rate. Moreover, the measurement interval is irregular. This study used optimization-based modeling approach in tree-level diameter increment and survival modeling to deal with the above problems. Models for self-thinning limit were developed to alleviate the problem of underestimated mortality arising from the features of the data. In addition, improved site index and individual-tree height models were developed. The model of Lundqvist and Korf was used as the site index model and the model proposed by Schumacher as the height model. Quantile regression was used to model the maximum stand basal area and maximum number of trees as a function of mean tree diameter and site index. Tree diameter, stand basal area, basal area in larger trees and site index were used as the predictors of diameter increment and tree survival. The models developed in this study constitute a model set that is suitable for simulation and optimization studies. The models produced simulation results that correspond to measured stand development.

Jin, Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management - Ministry of Education, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, Heilongjiang, People’s Republic of China http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2971-2709 E-mail: xingji_jin@163.com
Pukkala, Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management - Ministry of Education, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, Heilongjiang, People’s Republic of China; University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: timo.pukkala@uef.fi
Li, Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management - Ministry of Education, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, Heilongjiang, People’s Republic of China http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4058-769X E-mail: fengrili@126.com
Dong, Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management - Ministry of Education, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, Heilongjiang, People’s Republic of China http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3985-9475 E-mail: ldonglihu2006@163.com

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