Rupert Seidl, Werner Rammer, Petra Lasch, Franz-Werner Badeck, Manfred J. Lexer. (2008). Does conversion of even-aged, secondary coniferous forests affect carbon sequestration? A simulation study under changing environmental conditions. Silva Fennica vol. 42 no. 3 article id 243. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.243

Keywords: forest management; Norway spruce; climate change mitigation; PICUS; 4C; model comparison

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To circumvent problems associated with even-aged, pure coniferous stands propagated outside their natural range alternative management strategies and conversion programs are currently discussed in Central Europe. However, a mainstreaming of such adapted silvicultural systems with climate change mitigation objectives is missing to date. In this study the objective was to assess in situ C storage under conditions of climate change in a secondary Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forest management unit in Austria. Four management strategies (Norway spruce age class forestry, transition to continuous cover forestry with Norway spruce, conversion to mixed conifer/broadleaved stands, no management) were investigated under current climate and two transient climate change scenarios in a simulation study. By comparing the results of two independent forest ecosystem models (PICUS v1.41, 4C) applied under identical forcings and boundary conditions we aimed at addressing uncertainties in model-based projections. A transition to continuous cover forestry increased C storage in all climate scenarios (+45.4 tC·ha^–1 to +74.0 tC·ha^–1 over the 100 year analysis period) compared to the approximately balanced C budget under the age class system. For the mixed conifer/broadleaved management variant predictions of the two models diverged significantly (+29.4 tC·ha^–1 and –10.6 tC·ha^–1 in PICUS and 4C respectively, current climate). With regard to climate change impacts both models agreed on distinct effects on productivity but lower sensitivity of C stocks due to compensation from respiration and adaptive harvest levels. In conclusion, considering the potential effects of silvicultural decisions on C stocks climate change mitigation should be addressed explicitly in programs advocating targeted change in management paradigms.

Seidl, Institute of Silviculture, BOKU, Vienna, Austria E-mail: rupert.seidl@boku.ac.at
Rammer, Institute of Silviculture, BOKU, Vienna, Austria E-mail: wr@nn.at
Lasch, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam, Germany E-mail: pl@nn.de
Badeck, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam, Germany E-mail: fwb@nn.de
Lexer, Institute of Silviculture, BOKU, Vienna, Austria E-mail: mjl@nn.at

article id 635, category Research article

Manfred J. Lexer, Karl Hönninger, Helfried Scheifinger, Christoph Matulla, Nikolaus Groll, Helga Kromp-Kolb. (2000). The sensitivity of central European mountain forests to scenarios of climatic change: methodological frame for a large-scale risk assessment. Silva Fennica vol. 34 no. 2 article id 635. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.635

Keywords: climate change; potential natural vegetation; alpine forests; risk assessment; patch model; multi-attribute decision making

Abstract | View details | Full text in PDF | Author Info

The methodological framework of a large-scale risk assessment for Austrian forests under scenarios of climatic change is presented. A recently developed 3D-patch model is initialized with ground-true soil and vegetation data from sample plots of the Austrian Forest Inventory (AFI). Temperature and precipitation data of the current climate are interpolated from a network of more than 600 weather stations to the sample plots of the AFI. Vegetation development is simulated under current climate (‘control run’) and under climate change scenarios starting from today's forest composition and structure. Similarity of species composition and accumulated biomass between these two runs at various points in time were used as assessment criteria. An additive preference function which is based on Saaty’s AHP is employed to synthesize these criteria to an overall index of the adaptation potential of current forests to a changing climate. The presented methodology is demonstrated for a small sample from the Austrian Forest Inventory. The forest model successfully simulated equilibrium species composition under current climatic conditions spatially explicit in a heterogenous landscape based on ground-true data. At none of the simulated sites an abrupt forest dieback did occur due to climate change impacts. However, substantial changes occured with regard to species composition of the potential natural vegetation (PNV).

Lexer, Institute of Silviculture, University of Agricultural Sciences, Peter-Jordanstrasse 70, A-1190 Vienna, Austria E-mail: lexer@edv1.boku.ac.at
Hönninger, Institute of Silviculture, University of Agricultural Sciences, Peter-Jordanstrasse 70, A-1190 Vienna, Austria E-mail: kh@nn.at
Scheifinger, Institute of Meteorology and Physics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Türkenschanzstrasse 18, A-1180 Vienna, Austria E-mail: hs@nn.at
Matulla, Institute of Meteorology and Physics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Türkenschanzstrasse 18, A-1180 Vienna, Austria E-mail: cm@nn.at
Groll, Institute of Meteorology and Physics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Türkenschanzstrasse 18, A-1180 Vienna, Austria E-mail: ng@nn.at
Kromp-Kolb, Institute of Meteorology and Physics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Türkenschanzstrasse 18, A-1180 Vienna, Austria E-mail: hkk@nn.at

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