Gaby Deckmyn, Bostjan Mali, Hojka Kraigher, Niko Torelli, Maarten Op de Beeck, Reinhart Ceulemans. (2009). Using the process-based stand model ANAFORE including Bayesian optimisation to predict wood quality and quantity and their uncertainty in Slovenian beech. Silva Fennica vol. 43 no. 3 article id 204. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.204

Keywords: forest management; wood quality; Bayesian calibration; beech; forest model; mechanistic; red heart

Abstract | View details | Full text in PDF | Author Info

The purpose of this study was to expand an existing semi-mechanistic forest model, ANAFORE (ANAlysing Forest Ecosystems), to allow for the prediction of log quality and the accompanying uncertainty as influenced by climate and management. The forest stand is described as consisting of trees of different cohorts, either of the same or of different species (deciduous or coniferous). In addition to photosynthesis, transpiration, total growth and yield, the model simulates the daily evolution in vessel biomass and radius, parenchyma and branch development. From these data early and latewood biomass, wood tissue composition, knot formation and density are calculated. The new version presented here, includes the description of log quality, including red heart formation of beeches. A Bayesian optimisation routine for the species parameters was added to the stand model. From a given range of input parameters (prior), the model calculates an optimised range for the parameters (posterior) based on given output data, as well as an uncertainty on the predicted values. A case study was performed for Slovenian beech forests to illustrate the main model functioning and more in particular the simulation of the wood quality. The results indicate that the ANAFORE model is a useful tool for analyzing wood quality development and forest ecosystem functioning in response to management, climate and stand characteristics. However, the Bayesian optimization showed that the remaining uncertainty on the input parameters for the chosen stand was very large, due to the large number of input parameters in comparison to the limited stand data.

Deckmyn, Research Group Plant and Vegetation Ecology, University of Antwerpen, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerpen, Belgium E-mail: gaby.deckmyn@ua.ac.be
Mali, Slovenian Forestry Institute, Vecna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia E-mail: bm@nn.si
Kraigher, Slovenian Forestry Institute, Vecna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia E-mail: hk@nn.si
Torelli, Slovenian Forestry Institute, Vecna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia E-mail: nt@nn.si
Op de Beeck, Research Group Plant and Vegetation Ecology, University of Antwerpen, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerpen, Belgium E-mail: modb@nn.be
Ceulemans, Research Group Plant and Vegetation Ecology, University of Antwerpen, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerpen, Belgium E-mail: rc@nn.be

Click this link to register to Silva Fennica.

If you are a registered user, log in to save your selected articles for later access.

Contents alert

Your selected articles
Send to email

Tikka P. S., (1940) The effect of injuries in trees on forest manage.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 50 no. 1 article id 7354 (remove) | Edit comment

Donnelly L., Grant O. M. et al. (2017) Effect of deployment-type on stem growth, biomas.. Silva Fennica vol. 51 no. 1 article id 1714 (remove) | Edit comment

Hamunen K., Virkkula O. et al. (2015) Enhancing informal interaction and knowledge co-.. Silva Fennica vol. 49 no. 1 article id 1214 (remove) | Edit comment

Domisch T., Huuskonen S. et al. (2024) Interactive effects of moose browsing and stand .. Silva Fennica vol. 58 no. 4 article id 23077 (remove) | Edit comment

Heikurainen L., Laine J. (1976) Effect of fertilization, drainage and temperatur.. Acta Forestalia Fennica vol. 0 no. 150 article id 7584 (remove) | Edit comment

Lindberg H., Aakala T. et al. (2024) Ignition probability and fuel consumption of bor.. Silva Fennica vol. 58 no. 3 article id 23064 (remove) | Edit comment

Ervasti I., (2016) Wood fiber contents of different materials in th.. Silva Fennica vol. 50 no. 4 article id 1611 (remove) | Edit comment

Follow @SilvaFennica