Gaby Deckmyn, Bostjan Mali, Hojka Kraigher, Niko Torelli, Maarten Op de Beeck, Reinhart Ceulemans. (2009). Using the process-based stand model ANAFORE including Bayesian optimisation to predict wood quality and quantity and their uncertainty in Slovenian beech. Silva Fennica vol. 43 no. 3 article id 204. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.204

Keywords: forest management; wood quality; Bayesian calibration; beech; forest model; mechanistic; red heart

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The purpose of this study was to expand an existing semi-mechanistic forest model, ANAFORE (ANAlysing Forest Ecosystems), to allow for the prediction of log quality and the accompanying uncertainty as influenced by climate and management. The forest stand is described as consisting of trees of different cohorts, either of the same or of different species (deciduous or coniferous). In addition to photosynthesis, transpiration, total growth and yield, the model simulates the daily evolution in vessel biomass and radius, parenchyma and branch development. From these data early and latewood biomass, wood tissue composition, knot formation and density are calculated. The new version presented here, includes the description of log quality, including red heart formation of beeches. A Bayesian optimisation routine for the species parameters was added to the stand model. From a given range of input parameters (prior), the model calculates an optimised range for the parameters (posterior) based on given output data, as well as an uncertainty on the predicted values. A case study was performed for Slovenian beech forests to illustrate the main model functioning and more in particular the simulation of the wood quality. The results indicate that the ANAFORE model is a useful tool for analyzing wood quality development and forest ecosystem functioning in response to management, climate and stand characteristics. However, the Bayesian optimization showed that the remaining uncertainty on the input parameters for the chosen stand was very large, due to the large number of input parameters in comparison to the limited stand data.

Deckmyn, Research Group Plant and Vegetation Ecology, University of Antwerpen, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerpen, Belgium E-mail: gaby.deckmyn@ua.ac.be
Mali, Slovenian Forestry Institute, Vecna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia E-mail: bm@nn.si
Kraigher, Slovenian Forestry Institute, Vecna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia E-mail: hk@nn.si
Torelli, Slovenian Forestry Institute, Vecna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia E-mail: nt@nn.si
Op de Beeck, Research Group Plant and Vegetation Ecology, University of Antwerpen, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerpen, Belgium E-mail: modb@nn.be
Ceulemans, Research Group Plant and Vegetation Ecology, University of Antwerpen, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerpen, Belgium E-mail: rc@nn.be

article id 525, category Research article

Thomas Knoke. (2002). Value of complete information on red heartwood formation in beech (Fagus sylvatica). Silva Fennica vol. 36 no. 4 article id 525. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.525

Keywords: value of information; economics of beech; red heartwood; silvicultural treatment

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Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is the most important deciduous tree species in Germany. The wood of beech shows normally a bright colour (white beech) as long as no coloured heartwood has been formed. The facultative heartwood formation is induced when oxygen enters central parts of older trees, where dead or at least less vital parenchyma exist. The coloured heartwood is usually called ‘red heartwood’. Beech without red heartwood can preferably be found in younger trees which show a high water content even in central parts of the stem. The presence of red heartwood is regarded as a severe reduction of timber quality. Numerous studies have investigated opportunities to derive information on the presence and characteristics of red heartwood of standing beech trees. But until now it has not been tested whether such information could be helpful to improve the economics of beech-silviculture. This paper investigates whether complete information on the heartwood of standing beech could be useful to control the proportion of discoloured timber harvested during one rotation. It is also examined, which kind of information on the heartwood could be used to improve the economic results. To verify this, simulations based on simple algorithms were conducted. The general assumption was made that all information on the heartwood would be available. The results show that information which is restricted on the mere existence of red heartwood is neither suited to significantly reduce the amount of coloured timber nor is it possible to improve economic results based on this information. Only based on information on the recent formation of red heartwood of beech, which is actually still white the amount of discoloured timber can be reduced significantly. Consequently the discounted cash flows can only be substantially improved based on information on an expected formation of recent red heartwood.

Knoke, Institute of Silviculture and Forest Management, Technische Universität München, Am Hochanger 13, D-85354 Freising, Germany E-mail: knoke@wbfe.forst.tu-muenchen.de

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