Lucas N. López, Hanne K. Sjølie, Abbas Nabhani, Francisco X. Aguilar. (2024). Impacts of biodiversity and carbon policies on the management of Norwegian forest and its ecosystem services. Silva Fennica vol. 58 no. 4 article id 23067. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.23067

Keywords: simulation; optimization; site productivity; bio-economic modeling; NorFor; regional impacts; TreeSim

Highlights: National-level biodiversity and carbon forest sector policies modelled in a simulation-optimization framework; Impacts of policies on management along site productivity gradients estimated; Policies vary in impact across productivity gradients with regional implications.

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Measures to enhance boreal forests’ biodiversity and climate change mitigation potential are high on the policy agenda. Site productivity influences management, ecological attributes, and economic outcomes. However, national-level analyses of management implementation in response to policies considering site productivity are lacking. We analyzed impacts of a carbon policy (Carb), a biodiversity policy (Bio) and a combined biodiversity and carbon policy (BioCarb) in Norway using a simulation-optimization framework, assessing impacts on forest management, timber harvest, ecological attributes, and carbon fluxes until year 2140. Management alternatives were simulated in the single-tree simulator TreeSim before being fed into a market model NorFor to compare policy outcomes to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. All policies led to decreased harvests. Old forests expanded from the current 3% to cover 21% or more of the productive forest area in all scenarios. Impacts of policies depended on site productivity. On low-productive land, management under Bio mirrored BAU, while the Carb and BioCarb policies yielded more set-asides. On high-productive land, management intensity under the Carb policy was similar to BAU but the Bio and BioCarb policies resulted in more set-asides and more old forest. Thus, on low-productive land, the carbon policy showed to have the strongest impact on forest management, while on high-productive land, the biodiversity policy had the strongest impact. With geographical site-productivity gradients, the two policies exhibited different regional effects. The study shows that ex-ante analyses with appropriate tools can provide relevant information of multiple consequences beyond the stated aims which should be considered in policy design.

López, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Applied Ecology, Agricultural Sciences and Biotechnology, P.O. Box 2400, Koppang, Norway https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6860-3408 E-mail: lucas.lopez@inn.no
Sjølie, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Applied Ecology, Agricultural Sciences and Biotechnology, P.O. Box 2400, Koppang, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8099-3521 E-mail: hanne.sjolie@inn.no
Nabhani, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Applied Ecology, Agricultural Sciences and Biotechnology, P.O. Box 2400, Koppang, Norway E-mail: abbas.nabhani@inn.no
Aguilar, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Forest Economics, SE-901 83 Umeå, Sweden E-mail: francisco.aguilar@slu.se

Category : Research article

article id 132, category Research article

Mats Berlin, Lars Lönnstedt, Gunnar Jansson, Öje Danell, Tore Ericsson. (2010). Developing a Scots pine breeding objective: a case study involving a Swedish sawmill. Silva Fennica vol. 44 no. 4 article id 132. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.132

Keywords: Pinus sylvestris; economic weights; bio-economic model; tree breeding; multi-trait selection

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The aim of this study was to develop a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) breeding objective for a vertically integrated sawmill in northern Sweden. The production system was defined as comprising the sawmill and the forests supplying it. Volume per hectare, wood density, survival and straightness were used as objective traits and the related selection criteria were measurements, collected at young tree age, of height, diameter, pilodyn penetration, vitality and straightness. A bio-economic model was used to calculate economic weights for the objective traits identified. We also investigated the efficiency of different selection indices based on these economic weights, in combination with available data on genetic parameters. Furthermore, we studied the effect of different discount rates on the calculated economic weights. The results showed that, compared to the full index (which included all selection criteria), omitting either vitality or straightness had a negligible effect, reducing predicted profit gain per hectare by less than one per cent. Height or diameter each had a greater effect, with a loss of predicted profit gain per hectare of up to 6%. Excluding pilodyn penetration from the selection index caused the largest reduction in predicted profit gain per hectare, amounting to over 10%. However, when both height and diameter were removed the predicted profit gain per hectare dropped to one-third of that based on the full index. Finally, ranking and genetic selection for the developed breeding objective was insensitive to changes in the discount rate.

Berlin, Skogforsk, Uppsala Science Park, SE-751 83 Uppsala, Sweden E-mail: mats.berlin@skogsforsk.se
Lönnstedt, Skogforsk, Uppsala Science Park, SE-751 83 Uppsala, Sweden E-mail: ll@nn.se
Jansson, Skogforsk, Uppsala Science Park, SE-751 83 Uppsala, Sweden E-mail: gj@nn.se
Danell, Skogforsk, Uppsala Science Park, SE-751 83 Uppsala, Sweden E-mail: od@nn.se
Ericsson, Skogforsk, Uppsala Science Park, SE-751 83 Uppsala, Sweden E-mail: te@nn.se

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