Eirik Ogner Jåstad, Niels Oliver Nagel, Junhui Hu, Per Kristian Rørstad. (2023). The location and capacity-dependent price impacts of biofuel production and its effect on the forest industry. Silva Fennica vol. 57 no. 1 article id 23001. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.23001

Keywords: partial equilibrium model; biofuel location policy; biomass supply; forest-based biofuel; nordic forest sector

Highlights: Large biofuel units prefer regions close to transportation facilities; Forest owners are the main winners if large-scale biofuel production is established; The first production units reduce export, hence should be located at an exporting hub; Biofuel production will reduce the Norwegian export of roundwood to Sweden; Biofuel production increases the local demand and pulpwood prices.

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Forest-based biofuel stands out as a promising solution to avoid fossil emissions in parts of the transport sector. Biofuel production will need large amounts of forest biomass, collected from a large area. Roundwood is costly to transport compared with other goods. Therefore, the location of forest-based biofuel production is a crucial part of an investment decision. This study analyses the optimal location of biofuel plants in Norway and the implications for the traditional forest sector in the Nordic countries. We test different numbers of production units, different sizes of the units, and various raw materials. The study applies a partial equilibrium model that covers the Norwegian and Nordic forest sectors, with 356 regions in Norway. The results indicate that small biofuel plants have the potential to turn exporting regions into importing regions. Larger biofuel plants are suitable for areas with large harvest activity today or regions with access to harbour or timber terminals along railways. We find that forest owners close to a biofuel plant will profit the most from biofuel production. Policymakers and investors should take into account that different locations and production capacities have different impacts on the forest sectors.

Jåstad, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1089-0284 E-mail: eirik.jastad@nmbu.no
Nagel, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3171-0262 E-mail: niels.oliver.nagel@nmbu.no
Hu, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0001-5993 E-mail: junhui.hu@nmbu.no
Rørstad, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway E-mail: per.kristian.rorstad@nmbu.no

article id 163, category Research article

Blas Mola-Yudego. (2010). Regional potential yields of short rotation willow plantations on agricultural land in Northern Europe. Silva Fennica vol. 44 no. 1 article id 163. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.163

Keywords: short rotation forestry; willow; production models; regional biomass supply; energy planning

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The development of short rotation forestry for bioenergy requires accurate and reliable yield estimates. This paper analyses the current, expected and potential regional productivity of short rotation willow plantations for six countries in Northern Europe. The estimations for present productivity are based on empirical models, using data regarding management, and local productivity based on the regional cereal yields. The estimates of expected yield rely on the current trends of yield increase from commercial willow plantations in the region. The estimates for potential yield are based on climatic restrictions. The results show potential average yields of 9.5, 6.8, 7.9, 9.0, 9.3, and 8.0 odt ha–1 yr–1 for Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden, respectively. The results of the study also show that there is a wide regional variation between the different countries. In Denmark, Finland and Sweden there is a convergence between the future forecasts and the climatic potential yields in the areas of high productivity. The Baltic countries seem to present lower estimates of present productivity, reflecting possible socio-economic restrictions, although they show a high biomass potential. The methods presented in this study can be further developed in other areas where willow cultivation is considered, and can serve as a basis for future economic considerations.

Mola-Yudego, University of Eastern Finland, School of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: blas.mola@uef.fi

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