Current issue: 58(5)
The investigation examines export sales of Finnish sawn softwood sales in 1951-1958, concentrating on the volume of the sales. The material was collected from the archives of Finnish Sawmill Owner’s Association and the Finnish Sawmill Control Organization and the annual reports of the former. Correlation analysis was used in assessing the interdependence of the monthly sales volume and the price, and opening sales and the total sales volume of the year.
A slightly negative correlation was seen between the sale price and the monthly sales volume. Goods sold at under average prices are more abundant than goods sold at over average prices. Generally, with a rising price trend, the annual sales volume increased, but with falling prices the situation was reverse. The sales volume has been dependent on the business cycle development of prices. There was positive correlation between the opening sales and the total sales quantity for the year. The sales volume was at its maximum in the period between November and January, and at the minimum between March and September.
The time of the sales made to different countries differed little judged by quarterly statistics. It seems that the major shippers have generally concluded opening sales first. Northern Finnish shippers and the small shippers of Southern Finland have sold proportionately least during the last quarter. In general, the poorer the qualities in question the smaller on an average the proportion of opening sales but the greater the share of clearance sales.
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The objective of the investigation was to study the trends and fluctuations in the composition of sawn goods, changes due to business cycles, and casual fluctuations. The subject is confined to sawn softwood export to Great Britain, the Netherlands, Belgium and France (The North Sea countries) in 1920-1952. The data was based mainly on statistics of the Board of Customs, Series of Foreign Trade, Finnish Sawmill Owner’s Association and the Finnish Official Statistics.
The North Sea countries took 75-85% of the sawn softwood exported from Finland before World War II, and 50-70% of the quantity exported since the war. Sawn softwood export from Finland is almost exclusively long and small-dimension timber. The composition of the export from Finland to the North Sea countries was defined already during the 1900th century, and no big chances were observed even during the period of 1920-1952. The only definite trend was decrease in the proportion of u/s grade.
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The purpose of the investigation was to examine the seasonal pattern in Finnish export shipments and export sales of sawn softwood in 1927-1953. Statistics concerning shipments have been obtained from the Board of Customs, and material relating to sales has been provided by the Finnish Sawmill Owner’s Association (now Finnish Sawmills Association). On the basis of original monthly statistics, 13-month moving averages were computed. Finally, a seasonal index was calculated.
According to the results, the export shipments have a fairly apparent seasonal pattern with very low figures from January to April, a peak from June to August, and thereafter a gradual decline up to the end of the year. There are also considerable variations from year to year but in general the exports follow this rhythm. In contrast to export shipments the seasonal pattern of export sales is characterised by significant irregularity. Market developments and speculation play a far greater role than the seasonal factors. Indeed, a seasonal character in export sales can scarcely be discerned.
The Acta Forestalia Fennica issue 61 was published in honour of professor Eino Saari’s 60th birthday.
The PDF includes a summary in English.