Perttu Anttila, Vesa Nivala, Olli Salminen, Markus Hurskainen, Janne Kärki, Tomi J. Lindroos, Antti Asikainen. (2018). Regional balance of forest chip supply and demand in Finland in 2030. Silva Fennica vol. 52 no. 2 article id 9902. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.9902

Keywords: bioenergy; energy wood; GIS; availability; potential

Highlights: The impact of increasing forest chip demand in 2030 was analyzed in Finland; Demand of small trees may exceed potential at the national level; Surplus potential will remain in logging residues and stumps; Hot spots of demand call for efficient logistical solutions.

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According to the National Energy and Climate Strategy of Finland in 2016, the demand for forest chips, that is, wood chips made of forest biomass directly for energy use, could even double by 2030 compared to the present situation. A spatially explicit impact analysis of regional supply and demand balances for forest chips was carried out. The balances were calculated as the difference between technical harvesting potentials and demand. First, the technical potentials were estimated based on the national forest inventory data. Secondly, three demand scenarios were defined for 2030 and subsequently deducted from the potentials. The results suggested that there would be increasing competition for feedstock in southern and western Finland, whereas in eastern and northern Finland there would still be surplus potential. Moreover, due to the remarkable deficit of small trees in southern Finland, there might be pressure towards using more pulpwood-sized and/or imported wood in energy production. The results also showed that, in particular, large new plants consuming substantial amounts of forest chips could have a significant effect on the regional availability of forest chips. Moreover, with increasing transport distances, new logistical solutions will be needed.

Anttila, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Yliopistokatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6131-392X E-mail: perttu.anttila@luke.fi
Nivala, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Eteläranta 55, FI-96300 Rovaniemi, Finland E-mail: vesa.nivala@luke.fi
Salminen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland E-mail: olli.salminen@luke.fi
Hurskainen, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Koivurannantie 1, FI-40400 Jyväskylä, Finland E-mail: markus.hurskainen@vtt.fi
Kärki, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Koivurannantie 1, FI-40400 Jyväskylä, Finland E-mail: janne.karki@vtt.fi
Lindroos, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Vuorimiehentie 3 (Espoo), P.O. Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT, Finland E-mail: tomi.j.lindroos@vtt.fi
Asikainen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Yliopistokatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: antti.asikainen@luke.fi

article id 636, category Research article

Tuula Nuutinen, Hannu Hirvelä, Jari Hynynen, Kari Härkönen, Hannu Hökkä, Kari T. Korhonen, Olli Salminen. (2000). The role of peatlands in Finnish wood production – an analysis based on large-scale forest scenario modelling. Silva Fennica vol. 34 no. 2 article id 636. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.636

Keywords: peatlands; MELA; wood production; forest scenario modelling

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Using the Finnish MELA model, a set of scenarios were produced and used to map the possibilities and risks surrounding the utilisation of peatlands in wood production in Finland. One of the scenarios was an estimate of allowable-cut calculated by maximising the net present value of the future revenues using a four per cent interest rate subject to non-decreasing flow of wood, saw logs and net income over a 50-year period, and net present value after the 50 year period greater or equal than in the beginning. The estimate for maximum regionally sustained removal in 1996–2005 was 68 million m3 per year – approaching 74 million m3 during the next decades. In this scenario, 14 per cent of all cuttings during the period 1996–2005 would be made on peatlands, which comprise ca. 31 per cent of the total area of forestry land. By the year 2025, the proportion of peatland cuttings would increase to over 20 per cent. The increase in future cutting possibilities on peatlands compensated for a temporary decrease in cuttings and growing stock on mineral soils. The allowable-cut effect was especially pronounced in northern Finland, where peatlands play an important role in wood production. In addition, the sensitivity of cutting possibilities for assumptions related to growth and price were analysed. The estimate of maximum sustainable yield as defined here seems to be fairly robust on the whole, except in northern Finland where the cutting scenarios were sensitive to the changes in the price of birch pulpwood. The proportion of peatland stands that are profitable for timber production depends on the interest rate: the higher the rate of interest the less peatland stands are thinned. The effect of cutting profile on future logging conditions and resulting costs were analysed in two forestry centres. If clear cuttings on mineral soils are to be cut first, an increase in future logging costs is inevitable.

Nuutinen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: tuula.nuutinen@metla.fi
Hirvelä, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: hh@nn.fi
Hynynen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: jh@nn.fi
Härkönen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: kh@nn.fi
Hökkä, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: hh@nn.fi
Korhonen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: ktk@nn.fi
Salminen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Station, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: os@nn.fi

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