Per K. Rørstad, Birger Solberg, Erik Trømborg. (2022). Can we detect regional differences in econometric analyses of the Norwegian timber supply? Silva Fennica vol. 56 no. 1 article id 10326. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.10326

Keywords: econometric specification test; panel data analysis; price elasticities; volume elasticities

Highlights: The first difference econometric specification yields better overall fit than fixed and random effects models; Using region specific price elasticities improve the fit for fixed and random effects models; Statistically significant different price elasticities are found in 12 out of total 15 pairs of regions; Western Norway has particularly high growing stock volume elasticities and low short-term price elasticities.

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Forestry and forest industries are important for regional income and employment in Norway as well as in most North European countries, but few studies exist about factors affecting the timber supply at regional level. The main objective of this study is to estimate aggregated regional timber supply elasticities for six regions in Norway. Thereby we also test for regional differences, focusing on wood prices, standing stock volume and interest rate as explanatory variables. We have used three different statistical models (fixed and random effects panel models and first difference models) on regional data from the Norwegian forest inventory on standing volume and official statistics on harvested volumes, interest rate and prices of sawlogs and pulpwood for the period 1996–2016. Statistically significant different price elasticities are found in 12 out of total 15 pairs of regions. The price elasticity was lower and the volume elasticity higher in the western region compared to the other regions. The first difference models are best with respect to specification tests. The use of region specific price elasticities gives slightly better fit for the panel data models than using a uniform price parameter. The results show that the econometric specification influence the parameter values, and it is thus complicated to directly compare results in different timber supply studies. Regional differences in timber supply are important to consider.

Rørstad, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway E-mail: per.kristian.rorstad@nmbu.no
Solberg, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway E-mail: birger.solberg@nmbu.no
Trømborg, Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway E-mail: erik.tromborg@nmbu.no

article id 141, category Research article

Per Kristian Rørstad, Erik Trømborg, Even Bergseng, Birger Solberg. (2010). Combining GIS and forest modelling in estimating regional supply of harvest residues in Norway. Silva Fennica vol. 44 no. 3 article id 141. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.141

Keywords: bioenergy; forestry; SGIS; supply functions

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New and ambitious targets for renewable energy production put attention to increased supply of biomass. Harvest residues are only to a limited extent demanded by the traditional forest industries and represent an unutilized resource for increased production of renewable energy in Norway. The overall objective of this paper is to study how GIS and forest modelling can be combined to improve estimates of the supply of harvest residues, taking different environmental and economic constraints into consideration. The analyses are based on a case study of a forest area of more than 40 000 ha in Southern Norway divided into about 500 private forest properties. The study was carried out by computations of timber harvest using the forestry scenario model SGIS based on extensive forest inventory data at stand level. In the studied area energy utilization of harvest residues is not profitable below an energy price of about EUR 3.2/GJ (NOK 0.10 /kWh) when the distance from roadside to industry is 20 km. Above this level supply increases rapidly over a rather narrow price range and is nearly inelastic above EUR 4.1/GJ (NOK 0.12/kWh). We did not find significant negative shifts in the residues supply caused by changes in location of roundwood harvest over time. Exclusion of collection from stands with a site index (H₄₀) below 14 reduced the potential supply of residues by 16–27%. The optimisation method combined selection of exogenous variables in order to map observed harvesting level and is probably the best approach to map future harvest.

Rørstad, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Dept of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Ås, Norway E-mail: per.kristian.rorstad@umb.no
Trømborg, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Dept of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Ås, Norway E-mail: et@nn.no
Bergseng, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Dept of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Ås, Norway E-mail: eb@nn.no
Solberg, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Dept of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Ås, Norway E-mail: bs@nn.no

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