Tuula Nuutinen, Seppo Kellomäki. (2001). A comparison of three modelling approaches for large-scale forest scenario analysis in Finland. Silva Fennica vol. 35 no. 3 article id 586. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.586

Keywords: MELA; carbon budget; forestry model; scenario modelling; EFISCEN; SIMA

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Forests play an important role in the sequestration of carbon dioxide and the storage of carbon. The potential and efficiency of mitigation options in forestry have been studied using large-scale forestry scenario models. In Finland, three models have been applied in attempts to estimate timber production and related carbon budgets. In this study, these models are compared. The oldest, MELA, was designed in the 1970s for the regional and national analysis of timber production. The European Forest Information Scenario Model, EFISCEN, originally a Swedish area matrix model, was developed in the early 1980s. SIMA, a gap-type ecosystem model, was utilised in the 1990s for regional predictions on how the changing climate may affect forest growth and timber yield in Finland. In EFISCEN, only the development of growing stock is endogeneous because the assumptions on growth, and the removal and rules for felling are given exogeneously. In the SIMA model, the rules for felling are exogeneous but the growth is modelled based on individual trees reacting to their environment. In the MELA model, the management of forests is endogeneous, i.e. the growth, felling regimes and the development of growing stock are the results of the analysis. The MELA approach integrated with a process-based ecosystem model seems most applicable in the analyses of effective mitigation measures compatible with sustainable forestry under a changing climate. When using the scenarios for the estimation of carbon budget, the policy makers should check that the analyses cover the whole area of interest, and that the assumptions on growth and management together with the definitions applied correspond with the forestry conditions in question.

Nuutinen, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Centre, Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: tuula.nuutinen@metla.fi
Kellomäki, University of Joensuu, Box 111, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: sk@nn.fi

article id 638, category Research article

Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Ari Pussinen. (2000). Validation of the European Forest Information Scenario Model (EFISCEN) and a projection of Finnish forests. Silva Fennica vol. 34 no. 2 article id 638. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.638

Keywords: Finland; EFISCEN; European forests; historic forest inventory data

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Large-scale forest scenario models are intensively used to make projections of forest areas of up to hundreds of millions of hectares. Within Europe, such projections have been done for 11 countries at the individual national scale, most often to foresee the long-term implications of the ongoing forest management. However, the validity of the models has rarely been tested. The aim of this study was 1. to validate the European Forest Information SCENario model (EFISCEN) by running it on historic Finnish forest inventory data, 2. to improve the model based on the validation, and 3. to project the Finnish forest development till 2050 with the improved model under alternative scenarios. The results of the validation showed that EFISCEN is capable of making reliable large-scale projections of forest resources for periods up to 50–60 years. Based on the validation, the model was improved concerning simulation of age development, thinning regimes and regrowth after thinning. The projection of the Finnish forests till 2050 with the improved model presented a maximum sustainable felling level of around 70 million m3 per year. That provides an average growing stock of 106 m3 ha–1 in 2050 and a net annual increment of 3.6 m3 ha–1 y–1. If the current trend towards more nature oriented forest management continues and 1.39 million ha of forests have been set aside additionally for nature reserves by 2050, the felling level could meet a realistic demand of 57 million m3 per year in 2050. Under the latter regime the average growing stock will have grown to 160 m3 ha–1 in 2050.

Nabuurs, European Forest Institute (EFI), Torikatu 34, FIN-80100 Joensuu, Finland; Wageningen University and Research Center, ALTERRA, P.O. Box 47, NL 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands E-mail: g.j.nabuurs@alterra.wag-ur.nl
Schelhaas, European Forest Institute (EFI), Torikatu 34, FIN-80100 Joensuu, Finland; Wageningen University and Research Center, ALTERRA, P.O. Box 47, NL 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands E-mail: mjs@nn.nl
Pussinen, European Forest Institute (EFI), Torikatu 34, FIN-80100 Joensuu, Finland; Wageningen University and Research Center, ALTERRA, P.O. Box 47, NL 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands E-mail: ap@nn.nl

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