Ilona Pietilä, Annika Kangas, Antti Mäkinen, Lauri Mehtätalo. (2010). Influence of growth prediction errors on the expected losses from forest decisions. Silva Fennica vol. 44 no. 5 article id 111. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.111

Keywords: growth prediction; uncertainty; forest information; updating; inoptimality loss

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In forest planning, forest inventory information is used for predicting future development of forests under different treatments. Model predictions always include some errors, which can lead to sub-optimal decisions and economic loss. The influence of growth prediction errors on the reliability of projected forest variables and on the treatment propositions have previously been examined in a few studies, but economic losses due to growth prediction errors is an almost unexplored subject. The aim of this study was to examine how the growth prediction errors affected the expected losses caused by incorrect harvest decisions, when the inventory interval increased. The growth models applied in the analysis were stand-level growth models for basal area and dominant height. The focus was entirely on the effects of growth prediction errors, other sources of uncertainty being ignored. The results show that inoptimality losses increased with the inventory interval. Average relative inoptimality loss was 3.3% when the inventory interval was 5 years and 11.6% when it was 60 years. Average absolute inoptimality loss was 230 euro ha^–1 when the inventory interval was 5 years and 860 euro ha^–1 when it was 60 years. The average inoptimality losses varied between development classes, site classes and main tree species.

Pietilä, University of Helsinki, Department of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland E-mail: ip@nn.fi
Kangas, University of Helsinki, Department of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland E-mail: annika.kangas@helsinki.fi
Mäkinen, University of Helsinki, Department of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland E-mail: am@nn.fi
Mehtätalo, University of Eastern Finland, School of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: lm@nn.fi

article id 218, category Research article

Md. Nurul Islam, Mikko Kurttila, Lauri Mehtätalo, Arto Haara. (2009). Analyzing the effects of inventory errors on holding-level forest plans: the case of measurement error in the basal area of the dominated tree species. Silva Fennica vol. 43 no. 1 article id 218. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.218

Keywords: inoptimality loss; dominated tree species; erroneous inventory data; forest plan

Abstract | View details | Full text in PDF | Author Info

Accurate inventory data are required for ensuring optimal net return on investment from the forest. Erroneous data can lead to the formulation of a non-optimal plan that can cause inoptimality losses. Little is known of the effect of using erroneous stand inventory data in preparing holding-level forest plans. This study reports on an approach for analyzing such inoptimality losses. Furthermore, inoptimality losses caused by measurement errors in the basal area of the dominated tree species were investigated in a case study. Based on the inventory data including routine measurements by 67 measurers, four measurer groups were created with different measurement error profiles for the basal area of the dominated tree species. This was followed by measurement error simulations for each group and by adding these to the accurate control inventory data to create erroneous data of different error profiles. Three different forest plans were then constructed by using erroneous data of each group. The plans were then analyzed and compared with plans based on correct data. The effect of measurement errors on the net present value from the whole planning period, and on the amount of remaining growing stock at the end of planning period, were analyzed and utilized in calculating the inoptimality losses. It was concluded that even errors involving dominated tree species can cause significant changes in the holding-level forest plans.

Islam, University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forest Sciences, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: nurul.islam@joensuu.fi
Kurttila, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Unit, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: mk@nn.fi
Mehtätalo, University of Helsinki, Dept. of Forest Resource Management, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland E-mail: lm@nn.fi
Haara, University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forest Sciences, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: ah@nn.fi

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