Göran Nordlander, Euan G. Mason, Karin Hjelm, Henrik Nordenhem, Claes Hellqvist. (2017). Influence of climate and forest management on damage risk by the pine weevil Hylobius abietis in northern Sweden. Silva Fennica vol. 51 no. 5 article id 7751. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.7751

Keywords: temperature sum; reforestation; soil scarification; clear-cut age; conifer seedling; damage prediction; warmer climate

Highlights: Analysis of survey data from 292 reforestation areas in northern Sweden show that the probability of pine weevil damage can be predicted with a standard error of 0.12; Three variables are important in the optimal model: proportion of seedlings in mineral soil, age of clear-cut, and temperature sum; Temperature sum in the model can be adjusted to reflect future climate scenarios.

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The pine weevil Hylobius abietis L. is an economically important pest insect that kills high proportions of conifer seedlings in reforestation areas. It is present in conifer forests all over Europe but weevil abundance and risk for damage varies considerably between areas. This study aimed to obtain a useful model for predicting damage risks by analyzing survey data from 292 regular forest plantations in northern Sweden. A model of pine weevil attack was constructed using various site characteristics, including both climatic factors and factors related to forest management activities. The optimal model was rather imprecise but showed that the risk of pine weevil attack can be predicted approximatively with three principal variables: 1) the proportion of seedlings expected to be planted in mineral soil rather than soil covered with duff and debris, 2) age of clear-cut at the time of planting, and 3) calculated temperature sum at the location. The model was constructed using long-run average temperature sums for epoch 2010, and so effects of climate change can be inferred from the model by adjustment to future epochs. Increased damage risks with a warmer climate are strongly indicated by the model. Effects of a warmer climate on the geographical distribution and abundance of the pine weevil are also discussed. The new tool to better estimate the risk of damage should provide a basis for foresters in their choice of countermeasures against pine weevil damage in northern Europe.

Nordlander, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Department of Ecology, P.O. Box 7044, SE-750 07 Uppsala, Sweden E-mail: Goran.Nordlander@slu.se
Mason, University of Canterbury, School of Forestry, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, P.O. Box 49, SE-230 53 Alnarp, Sweden http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9024-9106 E-mail: euan.mason@canterbury.ac.nz
Hjelm, Skogforsk, The Forest Research Institute of Sweden, Ekebo 2250, SE-268 90 Svalöv, Sweden; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, P.O. Box 49, SE-230 53 Alnarp, Sweden E-mail: karin.hjelm@skogforsk.se
Nordenhem, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Department of Ecology, P.O. Box 7044, SE-750 07 Uppsala, Sweden E-mail: h.nordenhem@telia.com
Hellqvist, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Department of Ecology, P.O. Box 7044, SE-750 07 Uppsala, Sweden E-mail: Claes.Hellqvist@slu.se

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