A model for the succession of the forest ecosystem is described. The growth and development of trees and ground cover are controlled by temperature and light conditions and the availability of nitrogen and water. In addition, the effects of the annual cycle of trees including the risk of frost damage, wild fire, and wind damages are contained in the model as factors which control the survival and productivity of trees. The model also makes it possible to evaluated the risk of insect attack assuming that this risk is inversely related to the growth efficiency of trees.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.
The study aimed at recognizing the phases of forest succession where dead trees most probably occur. The model simulations showed that the increasing occurrence of dead trees culminated after the canopy closure. Thereafter the occurrence of dead trees decreased representing a pattern where high frequency of dead trees was followed by low frequency of dead trees, the intervals between the peaks in the number of dead trees being in Southern Finland about 15–30 years. Around this long-term variation there was a short-term variation, the interval between the peaks in the number of dead trees being 2–4 years. This pattern was associated with the exhausting and release of resources controlled by the growth and death of trees.
The PDF includes an abstract in Finnish.