Articles containing the keyword 'predictions'

A gap-model was used with forest inventory data in taking ground-true site, soil and tree characteristics into account in predicting the effects of climate change on forests. A total of 910 permanent sample plots established in the course of national forest inventory (NFI) in Finland and located on mineral soil sites in southern Finland were selected as the input data. The climatological input used in the simulations consisted of interpolated means of and deviations from long-term local temperature and precipitation records. The policy-oriented climate scenarios of SILMU (Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change) were used to describe the climate change. The temperature changes in the climate scenarios were increases of ca. +1.1 °C (low), +4.4 °C (medium) and +6.6 °C (high) compared to the current climate in 110 years. The simulation period was 110 years covering the time years 1990–2100.

Southern Finland, divided into fifteen forestry board districts, was used as the study region. Regional development of stand volume, cutting yield, and total wood production of forests under different climate scenarios were examined. The annual average growth in simulations under current climate was close to that observed in NFL Forests benefited from a modest temperature increase (Scenario 2), but under Scenario 1 the growing stock remained at a lower level than under the current climate in all parts of the study region. In wood production and cutting yield there were regional differences. In the southern part of the study regional wood production under Scenario 1 was ca. 10% lower than under the current climate, but in the eastern and western parts wood production was 5–15% higher under Scenario 1 than under the current climate. The relative values of total wood production and cutting yield indicated that the response of forests to climate change varied by geographical location and the magnitude of climate change. This may be a consequence of not just varying climatic (e.g. temperature and precipitation) and site conditions, but of varying responses by different kind of forests (e.g. forests differing in tree species composition and age).

• Talkkari, E-mail: at@mm.unknown

Bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.) and lingonberry (V. vitis-idaea L.) can be a part of healthy diet and are important for many animals. Two approaches are described to assessing their vegetation cover and berry yield via national forest inventory (NFI) observations. The aim was to provide estimates and predictions of the abundance and yield of the species at regional and national levels in Finland and Sweden. In Finland, the model-based predictions are used in evaluating the impacts of cutting intensity on forest berries needed in forest-related decision making. In Sweden, seasonal inventory-based estimates are used to evaluate the annual national and regional berry yields, and in a forecasting system aimed at large public and berry enterprises. Based on the NFI sample plots measured between 2014 and 2018, the total annual yields are estimated to be 208 Mkg of bilberry and 246 Mkg of lingonberry on productive forest land (increment at least 1 m³ ha^–1 year^–1) in Finland, and 336 and 382 Mkg respectively in Sweden (average of NFI inventories in 2015–2019). The predicted development of berry yields is related to the intensity of cuttings in alternative forest management scenarios: lower removals favoured bilberry, and higher removals lingonberry. The model-based method describes the effects of stand development and management on berry yields, whereas the inventory-based method can calibrate seasonal estimates through field observations. In providing spatially and timely more accurate information concerning seasonal berry yields, an assessment of berry yields should involve the elements of both inventory-based and model-based approaches described in this study.

• Miina, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Yliopistokatu 6 B, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8639-4383 E-mail: jari.miina@luke.fi
• Bohlin, Swedish University of Agricultural sciences (SLU), Department of Forest Resource Management, Skogsmarksgränd, S-901 83 Umeå, Sweden E-mail: inka.bohlin@slu.se
• Lind, Swedish University of Agricultural sciences (SLU), Department of Forest Resource Management, Skogsmarksgränd, S-901 83 Umeå, Sweden E-mail: torgny.lind@slu.se
• Dahlgren, Swedish University of Agricultural sciences (SLU), Department of Forest Resource Management, Skogsmarksgränd, S-901 83 Umeå, Sweden E-mail: jonas.dahlgren@slu.se
• Härkönen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland E-mail: kari.harkonen@luke.fi
• Packalen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Yliopistokatu 6 B, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland; Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Finland, P.O. Box 30, FI-00023 Government, Finland E-mail: tuula.packalen@mmm.fi
• Tolvanen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Paavo Havaksentie 3, FI-90014 University of Oulu, Finland E-mail: anne.tolvanen@luke.fi

• Nyström, SLU, Department of Forest Resource Management and Geomatics, SE-901 83 Umeå, Sweden E-mail: kenneth.nystrom@resgeom.slu.se
• Ståhl, SLU, Department of Forest Resource Management and Geomatics, SE-901 83 Umeå, Sweden E-mail: gs@nn.se

• Magnussen, Canadian Forest Service, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria B.C., Canada V8Z 1M5 E-mail: smagnussen@pfc.forestry.ca
• Boudewyn, Canadian Forest Service, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria B.C., Canada V8Z 1M5 E-mail: pb@nn.ca
• Wulder, Canadian Forest Service, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria B.C., Canada V8Z 1M5 E-mail: mw@nn.ca
• Seemann, Canadian Forest Service, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria B.C., Canada V8Z 1M5 E-mail: ds@nn.ca