Methods involving the use of moving averages, trend surfaces and their combination are compared in deriving local values of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation sums from the observations made by the Finnish Meteorological Office. Correlation between meteorological variables and sea index, lake index and height above sea level were used in the trend surface method and in the combined method. Combined method, with a trend surface calculated from means of a long time period, was the most reliable method to estimate long local time series.
A method to calculate unbiased estimates of effective temperature sums from monthly mean temperatures is presented.
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Diameter and volume increment as well as change in stem form of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) were analysed to predict tree increment variables. A stem curve set model is presented, based on prediction of the diameters at fixed angles in a polar coordinate system. This model consists of three elementary stem curves: 1) with bark, 2) without bark, and 3) without bark five years earlier. The differences between the elementary stem curves are the bark curve and the increment curve. The error variances at fixed angles and covariances between the fixed angles are divided into between-stand and within-stand components. Using principal components, the between-stand and within-stand covariance matrices are condensed separately for stem curve with bark, bark curve and increment curve. The two first principal components of the bark curve describe the vertical change in Scots pine bark type and the first principal component of the increment curve describes the increment rate. The elementary stem curves, bark curve and increment curve as well as corresponding stem volumes, bark volume and volume increment can be predicted for all trees in the stand with free choice of sample tree measurements. When only a few sample trees are measured, the stem curve set model gives significantly more accurate predictions of bark volume and volume increment for tally trees than does the volume method, which is based on the differences between two independent predictions of volume. The volume increment of tally trees can be predicted as reliably with as without measurement of sample tree height increment.
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The paper is the final report of a study on the estimation of value increment and inherent variables of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) stands. The main aim was to obtain improved criteria for decision-making concerning the priority of stands for regeneration.
The construction of various estimation models and their reliability are discussed in detail. The study, together with some previous papers, has resulted in a system which on the basis of a number of easily assessed stand variables gives for the stands concerned the volume of stems, percentages of timber assortments, stumpage value, volume increment and value increment.
The following examples are given with regard to the practical application of the results, in addition to the determination of the relative maturity of stands: 1) The study of various trends in stand development; the comparison between the volume and value variables. 2) The estimation of timber assortments needed for a cutting budget, trees marked for felling etc. 3) The calculation of the value of forests.
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