Articles containing the keyword 'regression model'

The prescribed burning of a 7.3 ha clear-cut and a 1.7 ha partially cut forest (volume 150 m³/ha) was carried out in Evo (61 °12'N, 25°07'E) on 1 June 1992. The forest was a mesic Myrtillus site type forest dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.). Practically all the trees and the above-ground parts of the understorey vegetation died in the fire, while the mor layer was thinned by an average of 1.5 cm.

A study was made on the change of germinated seedling population in time and their dependence on environmental factors. Seedlings of Norway spruce, Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), silver birch (Betula pendula Roth), pubescent birch (B. pubescens Ehrh.) and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia L.) were inventoried in 1993 and in 1994 on permanent plots, four times per growing season. Autoregression models were used to compare regeneration of tree species in the burned forest with regeneration in the burnt clear-cut area, and to study the effect of distance from nearest seed source to regeneration.

The average number of seedlings germinating in 1993 was higher than in 1994, probably because of differences between these consecutive years in regard to the amount of seed rain and weather conditions. The number of Norway spruce and rowan seedling was higher inside the forest area than in the clear-cut area. The distance to the bordering forest and to the closest seed tree did not explain the result. It is suggested that the more stable microclimatic conditions under the shade of dead tree promote germination and seedling establishment in the forest area. As rowan is a bird-dispersed species, it is likely that dead trees help the dispersal of rowan seed by providing birds place to sit and defecate. The shade provided by dead trees may influence the further succession of the tree stand and vegetation composition and diversity.

• Vanha-Majamaa, E-mail: iv@mm.unknown
• Suominen, E-mail: rs@mm.unknown
• Tonteri, E-mail: tt@mm.unknown
• Tuittila, E-mail: et@mm.unknown

The presence/absence data of 27 forest insect taxa (Retinia resinella, Formica spp., Pissodes spp., several scolytids) and recorded environmental variation were used to investigate the applicability of modelling insect occurrence based on satellite imagery. The sampling was based on 1,800 sample plots (25 m by 25 m) placed along the sides of 30 equilateral triangles (side 1 km) in a fragmented forest area (approximately 100 km²) in Evo, Southern Finland. The triangles were overlaid on land use maps interpreted from satellite images (Landsat TM 30 m multispectral scanner imagery 1991) and digitized geological maps. Insect occurrence was explained using either environmental variables measured in the field or those interpreted from the land use and geological maps. The fit of logistic regression models carried between species, possibly because some species may be associated with characteristics of single trees while other species with stand characteristics. The occurrence of certain insect species at least, especially those associated with Scots pine, could be relatively accurately assessed indirectly on the basis of satellite imagery and geological maps. Models based on both remotely sensed and geological data better predicted the distribution of forest insects except in the case of Xylechinus pilosus, Dryocetes sp. and Trypodendron lineatum, where the differences were relatively small in favour of the models based on field measurements. The number of species was related to habitat compartment size and distance from the habitat edge calculated from the land use maps, but logistic regressions suggested that other environmental variables in general masked the effect of these variables in species occurrence at the present scale.

• Väisänen, E-mail: rv@mm.unknown
• Heliövaara, E-mail: kh@mm.unknown

Biogeographical patterns of the Scolytidae in Fennoscandia and Denmark, based on species incidence data from the approximately 70 km x 70 km quadrats (n = 221) used by Lekander et al. (1977), were classified to environmental variables using multivariate methods (two-way indicator species analysis, detrended correspondence analysis, canonical correspondence analysis).

The distributional patterns of scolytid species composition showed similar features to earlier presented zonations based on vegetation composition. One major difference, however, was that the region was more clearly divided in an east-west direction. Temperature variables associated with the location of the quadrat had the highest canonical coefficient values on the first axis of the CCA. Although these variables were the most important determinants of the biogeographical variation in the beetle species assemblages, annual precipitation and the distribution of Picea abies also improved the fit of the species data.

Samples with the most deviant rarity and typicality indices for the scolytid species assempblages in each quadrat were concentrated in several southern Scandinavian quadrats, in some quadrats in northern Sweden, and especially on the Swedish islands (Öland, Gotland, Gotska Sandön) in the Baltic Sea. The use of rarity indices which do not take the number of species per quadrat, also resulted high values for areas near Stockholm and Helsinki with well-known faunas. Methodological tests in which the real changes in the distribution of Ips acuminatus and I. amitinus were used as indicators showed that the currently available multivariate methods are sensitive to small faunal shifts even, and thus permit analysis of the fauna in relation to environmental changes. However, this requires more detailed monitoring of the species’ distributions over longer time spans.

Distribution of seven species (Scolytus intricatus, S. laevis, Hylurgops glabratus, Crypturgus cinereus, Pityogenes salasi, Ips typographus, and Cyleborus dispar) were predicted by logistic regression models using climatic variables. In spite of the deficiencies in the data and the environmental variables selected, the models were relatively good for several but not for all species. The potential effects of climate change on bark beetles are discussed.

The PDF includes a summary in Finnish.

• Heliövaara, E-mail: kh@mm.unknown
• Väisänen, E-mail: rv@mm.unknown
• Immonen, E-mail: ai@mm.unknown

The density of Picea abies [L.] Karst. regeneration on different microsites, the quantity and quality of woody microsites, and seedling occurrence probability on stumps and fallen deadwood were studied in a subalpine forest that has been under protection for approximately 30–40 years (Gorce Mountains in the western Carpathians). Thirty percent of seedlings and 29% of saplings grew on stumps and fallen deadwood, while the remaining regeneration occurred on soil surface and mounds created by uprooted trees. The occurrence probability of Picea seedlings on fallen deadwood increased with deadwood diameter and decay stage and with the volume of living trees, and decreased with increased density of living trees, sapling density, and land slope. Furthermore, seedlings were more likely to grow on stumps with a greater diameter and in plots with higher sapling density, but less likely to grow on higher stumps. Stumps and fallen deadwood covered about 4% of the forest floor, but the material that is most important for promoting regeneration (strongly decomposed logs and those of a diameter exceeding 30 cm) took up only about 22 m² ha^-1. We have concluded that in a subalpine forest that has been protected for 30–40 years regeneration processes take place mostly on soil surface and stumps. The role of fallen deadwood increases over time as a greater number of suitable logs (in terms of size and decay stage) become available.

• Bujoczek, University of Agriculture in Krakow, E-mail: lbujoczek@gmail.com
• Bujoczek, University of Agriculture in Krakow, E-mail: bujoczek.m@gmail.com
• Banaś, University of Agriculture in Krakow, E-mail: rlbanas@cyf-kr.edu.pl
• Zięba, University of Agriculture in Krakow, E-mail: rlzieba@cyf-kr.edu.pl

• Suvanto, Blom Kartta Oy, Teollisuuskatu 18, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: aki.suvanto@blomasa.com
• Maltamo, University of Eastern Finland, School of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box, FI-80101, Joensuu, Finland E-mail: mm@nn.fi