Articles by Vesa Nivala

We modelled the effect of habitat composition and roads on the number and occurrence of moose (Alces alces L.) damage in Ostrobothnia and Lapland using a zero-inflated count model. Models were developed for 1 km², 25 km² and 100 km² landscapes consisting of equilateral rectangular grid cells. Count models predict the number of damage, i.e. the number of plantations and zero models the probability of a landscape being without damage for a given habitat composition. The number of moose damage in neighboring grid cells was a significant predictor in all models. The proportion of mature forest was the most frequent significant variable, and an increasing admixture of mature forests among plantations increased the number and occurrence of damage. The amount of all types of plantations was the second most common significant variable predicting increasing damage along with increasing amount of plantations. An increase in thinning forests as an admixture also increased damage in 1 km² landscapes in both areas, whereas an increase in pine-dominated thinning forests in Lapland reduced the number of damage in 25 km² landscapes. An increasing amount of inhabited areas in Ostrobothnia and the length of connecting roads in Lapland reduced the number of damage in 1 and 25 km² landscapes. Differences in model variables between areas suggest that models of moose damage risk should be adjusted according to characteristics that are specific to the study area.

• Nikula, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Bioeconomy and Environment, Ounasjoentie 6, FI-96200 Rovaniemi, Finland E-mail: ari.nikula@luke.fi
• Nivala, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Bioeconomy and Environment, Ounasjoentie 6, FI-96200 Rovaniemi, Finland E-mail: vesa.nivala@luke.fi
• Matala, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Natural resources, Yliopistokatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: juho.matala@luke.fi
• Heliövaara, University of Helsinki, Department of Forest Sciences, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland E-mail: kari.heliovaara@helsinki.fi

According to the National Energy and Climate Strategy of Finland in 2016, the demand for forest chips, that is, wood chips made of forest biomass directly for energy use, could even double by 2030 compared to the present situation. A spatially explicit impact analysis of regional supply and demand balances for forest chips was carried out. The balances were calculated as the difference between technical harvesting potentials and demand. First, the technical potentials were estimated based on the national forest inventory data. Secondly, three demand scenarios were defined for 2030 and subsequently deducted from the potentials. The results suggested that there would be increasing competition for feedstock in southern and western Finland, whereas in eastern and northern Finland there would still be surplus potential. Moreover, due to the remarkable deficit of small trees in southern Finland, there might be pressure towards using more pulpwood-sized and/or imported wood in energy production. The results also showed that, in particular, large new plants consuming substantial amounts of forest chips could have a significant effect on the regional availability of forest chips. Moreover, with increasing transport distances, new logistical solutions will be needed.

• Anttila, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Yliopistokatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6131-392X E-mail: perttu.anttila@luke.fi
• Nivala, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Eteläranta 55, FI-96300 Rovaniemi, Finland E-mail: vesa.nivala@luke.fi
• Salminen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland E-mail: olli.salminen@luke.fi
• Hurskainen, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Koivurannantie 1, FI-40400 Jyväskylä, Finland E-mail: markus.hurskainen@vtt.fi
• Kärki, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Koivurannantie 1, FI-40400 Jyväskylä, Finland E-mail: janne.karki@vtt.fi
• Lindroos, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Vuorimiehentie 3 (Espoo), P.O. Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT, Finland E-mail: tomi.j.lindroos@vtt.fi
• Asikainen, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Yliopistokatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: antti.asikainen@luke.fi