The productivity of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) under changing climatic conditions in the southern part of Finland was studied by scenario analysis with a gap-type forest ecosystem model. Standard simulations with the model predicted an increased rate of growth and hence increased productivity as a result of climatic warming. The gap-type model was refined by introducing an overwintering sub-model describing the annual growth cycle, frost hardiness, and frost damage of the trees. Simulations with the refined gap-type model produced results conflicting with those of the standard simulation, i.e., drastically decreased productivity caused by mortality and growth-reducing damage due to premature dehardening in the changing climate. The overwintering sub-model was tested with frost hardiness data from Scots pine saplings growing at their natural site 1) under natural conditions and 2) under elevated temperature condition, both in open-top chambers. The model predicted the frost hardiness dynamics quite accurately for the natural conditions while underestimating the frost hardiness of the saplings for the elevated temperature conditions. These findings show that 1) the overwintering sub-model requires further development, and 2) the possible reduction of productivity caused by frost damage in a changing climate is less drastic than predicted in the scenario analysis. The results as a whole demonstrated the need to consider the overwintering of trees in scenario analysis carried out with ecosystem model for boreal conditions. More generally, the results revealed a problem that exists in scenario analysis with ecological models: the accuracy of a model in predicting the ecosystem functioning under present climatic condition does not guarantee the realism of the model, nor for this reason the accuracy for predicting the ecosystem functioning under changing climatic conditions. This finding calls for the continuous rigorous experimental testing of ecological models used for assessing the ecological implications of climatic change.
Two dynamic models predicting the development of frost hardiness of Finnish Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) were tested with frost hardiness data obtained from trees growing in the natural conditions of Finland and from an experiment simulating the predicted climatic warming. The input variables were temperature in the first model, and temperature and night length in the second. The model parameters were fixed on the basis of previous independent studies. The results suggested that the model which included temperature and photoperiod as input variables was more accurate than the model using temperature as the only input variable to predict the development of frost hardiness in different environmental conditions. Further requirements for developing the frost hardiness models are discussed.
According to a recently presented hypothesis, the predicted climatic warming will cause height growth onset of trees during mild spells in winter and heavy frost damage during subsequent periods of frost in northern conditions. The hypothesis was based on computer simulations involving a model employing air temperature as the only environmental factor influencing height growth onset. In the present study, the model was tested in the case of eastern Finnish Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) saplings. Four experimental saplings growing on their natural site were surrounded by transparent chambers in autumn 1990. The air temperature in the chambers was raised during the winter to present an extremely warm winter under the predicted conditions of a double level of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The temperature treatment hastened height growth onset by two months as compared to the control saplings, but not as much as expected on the basis of the previous simulation study. This finding suggests that 1) the model used in the simulation study needs to be developed further, either by modifying the modelled effect of air temperature or by introducing other environmental factors, and 2) the predicted climatic warming will not increase the risk of frost damage in trees as much as suggested by the previous simulation study.
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A model for the succession of the forest ecosystem is described. The growth and development of trees and ground cover are controlled by temperature and light conditions and the availability of nitrogen and water. In addition, the effects of the annual cycle of trees including the risk of frost damage, wild fire, and wind damages are contained in the model as factors which control the survival and productivity of trees. The model also makes it possible to evaluated the risk of insect attack assuming that this risk is inversely related to the growth efficiency of trees.
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The effect of photon flux density on bud dormancy release in two-year-old seedlings of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) was examined. The seedlings were first chilled for 0–21 weeks under natural conditions and then forced in a warm greenhouse either in low (15 μEm-2s-1) or in high (300 μEm-2s-1) photon flux density. Occurrence of bud burst was observed in the forcing conditions, and the observations were used for estimating the cumulative frequency distribution of the chilling requirement for growth competence. The estimated distribution had greater variance in the low photon flux density than in the high photon flux density forcing. This finding suggests that unnaturally low photon flux densities during forcing may yield overestimates of the genetic within-population variation in the chilling requirement for growth competence.
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The relationships between bud dormancy and frost hardiness were examined using two-year-old Pinus sylvestris L. seedlings. The chilling temperatures used were +4 and -2°C. To examine the dormancy release of the seedlings, a forcing technique was used. Frost hardiness was determined by artificial freezing treatments and measurements of electrical impedance. At the start of the experiment, the frost hardiness of the seedlings was about -25°C. After the rest break, the seedlings kept at +4°C dehardened until after eight weeks their frost hardiness reached -5°C. At the lower chilling temperature (-2°C) the frost hardiness remained at the original level. When moved from +4 to -2°C, seedlings were able to reharden only after the time required for bud burst in the forcing conditions had reached the minimum.
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The model computations indicate that the climatic change in the form of higher temperatures and more precipitation could increase the productivity of the forest ecosystem and lead to higher rates of regeneration and growth. More frequent and intensive thinnings are needed to avoid the mortality of trees induced by accelerated maturation and attacks of fungi and insects. The climatic change could support the dominance of deciduous tree species and necessitate an intensification of the tending of seedling stands of conifers. The rise of air temperature during autumn and winter could change also the annual growth rhythm of trees and result in dehardening and subsequent frost damages and attacks of insects and fungi. The pest management could be the greatest challenge to the future silviculture, which could be modified most in Northern Finland.
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Models concerning the effects of temperature on dormancy release in woody plants were tested using two-year old seedlings of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.). Chilling experiments suggest that the rest period has a distinct end point. Before the attainment of this end point high temperatures do not promote bud development towards dormancy release, and after it further chilling does not affect the subsequent bud development. A new hypothesis of dormancy release is suggested on the basis of a comparison between present and earlier findings. No difference in the proportion of growth commencing seedlings were detected between the forcing temperatures of 17°C and 22°C. The rest break of 50% of Norway spruce and Scots pine seedlings required six and eight weeks of chilling, respectively. Great variation in the chilling requirement was found, especially for Scots pine.
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This issue of Silva Fennica consists of eight articles, which are based on a co-nordic conference ”Frost hardiness and over-wintering in forest tree seedlings”, held in Joensuu, Finland, during December 1–3, 1986. The whole annual cycle of the trees is considered. Emphasis is given on methods for the study of frost hardiness, genetic variation in frost hardiness, nitrogen metabolism, bud dormancy release, and joint effect of natural and anthropogenic stress factors in the winter damage of forest trees. Practical implications for tree breeding and nursery management are discussed.
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Logical structure of three simulation models and one conceptual model concerning effects of temperature on dormancy release in woody plants was examined. The three basic types of simulation models differed in their underlying assumptions. Contrasting implications of the models were inferred by deduction. With the aid of these implications, the model types can be tested using experiments with continuous and interrupted chilling. Similarly, implications of the conceptual model of rest phases were inferred, by which the model can be tested using experiments with continuous chilling and forcing in multiple temperatures. The possibilities to synthetize the conceptual model with any of the three simulation model types, as well as the biological interpretation of the model variables, were discussed.
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The effect of the size of seed crop, dispersal of seeds and the early development of seedlings on the density and spatial distribution of young Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands are evaluated on the basis of theoretical models. The models include (i) number and spatial distribution of parent trees on the regeneration area, (ii) size of annual seed crop, (iii) seed dispersal from a particular parent tree, (iv) germination of the seeds (germination percentage), (v) death of ageing seedlings after the establishment process, and (vi) height growth of the seedlings.
As expected, stand density and spatial distribution varied within a large range in relation to the density of the parent trees and the distance from them. The simulations also showed that natural seedling stands can be expected to be heterogenous due to the geometry of seed dispersal, emphasizing the frequency of young and small trees. The properties of the seedling stands were, however, greatly dependent on the density of the parent trees and the length of the regeneration period.
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Different approaches to the study of the annual rhythm of forest trees are described and compared by analysing the concepts and theories presented in the literature. The seasonality varying morphological and physiological state of forest trees is referred to as the annual rhythm s. lat., from which the annual ontogenetic rhythm is separated as a distinct type. The dormancy phenomena of the trees are grouped into four categories. Theories concerning the regulation of the annual rhythm are divided into two main types, the most common examples of which are the photoperiod theory and the temperature sum theory. Recent efforts towards a synthetic theory are described.
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The premises of several models obtained from literature on bud dormancy release in trees from cool and temperate regions differs from each other with respect to responses to air temperature during the rest period of the buds. The predicted timing of bud burst in natural conditions varied among the models, as did the prediction of the models for the outcome of a chilling experiment.
Experimental results with two-year old seedlings of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) did not agree with any of the models. The experimental results also deviated from abundand earlier findings, which also disagreed with any of the models. This finding suggests that Finnish provenances of Scots pine and Norway spruce differ from more southern provenances with respect to temperature regulation of bud dormancy release.
A synthesis model for the effects of air temperature on bud dormancy release in trees was developed on the basis of the previous models and the experimental results of both the present and previous studies. The synthesis model contains part of the original models as special cases. The parameters of the synthesis model represent several aspects of the bud dormancy release of trees that should be addressed separately with each species and provenance in experimental studies. Further aspects of dormancy release were discussed, in order to facilitate further development of the models.
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The effect of cutting the root connection by detaching the shoot from the root system on dormancy release and vegetative bud burst was examined in 2-year-old seedlings of Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.). Seedlings were transferred at 1–4 week intervals between October and January from outdoor conditions to experimental forcing in a heated greenhouse. Before forcing, half of the seedlings were cut above ground line, and the detached shoots were forced with their cut ends placed in water. The intact seedlings were forced with their root system remaining intact in the pots. Vegetative bud burst was observed visually. Cutting the root connection slightly increased days to bud burst in the forcing conditions, however, no consistent effect on bud burst percentage was found. Our preliminary seedling data suggest that using detached tree material in dormancy release experiments may have a small effect on bud burst date but it will evidently not lead to drastically erroneous conclusions. Further studies, using different seed lots, are needed to assess the effect of detaching on the dormancy release and bud burst, especially in adult trees.